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The Institute of Meteorology of Cuba (INSMET) has issued a new Tropical Cyclone Advisory, number five, in light of the presence of tropical storm Melissa over the waters of the Caribbean Sea.
In its most recent report, issued at six in the morning on October 23, the Forecast Center warns of the possible intensification of the phenomenon, which is located in a very active area conducive to its development.
At 6:00 a.m., the center of Melissa was located at 15.0 degrees North latitude and 75.0 degrees West longitude, placing it approximately 370 kilometers southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.
The system is moving very slowly toward the west-northwest, with a translational speed of only 6 km/h.
Melissa maintains maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h, with higher gusts; and a central pressure of 1002 hectoPascals.
These values indicate that, although it is still a tropical storm, conditions could change in the short term.
Perspectives on trajectory and intensification
In the next 24 hours, the storm is expected to maintain its current speed, but gradually shift its course toward the northwest and then north, moving further into the central Caribbean Sea, south of the Greater Antilles.
The Institute warns that "the oceanic and atmospheric conditions will be favorable for its gradual intensification", so the system will remain under strict monitoring.
Although Melissa is still not near Cuban territory or other populated areas of the western Caribbean, her current position, slow movement, and the time of year are causing concern among meteorologists.
In the words of the official report, "it poses a potential threat to our geographical area."
The persistence of the system over the warm waters of the Caribbean could enhance its development and strengthen its winds, increasing the risk for surrounding countries, including Cuba.
The Forecast Center of the Institute of Meteorology is maintaining continuous monitoring of the storm and has announced that the next advisory will be issued at six in the evening this Thursday, or earlier if necessary.
Meteorological authorities emphasize the importance of staying informed about the evolution of a phenomenon that could become a direct threat.
Rubiera warns: the storm Melissa could become a danger to Cuba
In recent hours, the renowned meteorologist José Rubiera described the forecast as "very difficult" due to the uncertainty in the system's trajectory.
He explained that, although Melissa appears organized due to the cloud cover, its center is displaced by the strong vertical shear that prevents its full development. As a result, the system has neither aligned nor been driven by the trough north of the Dominican Republic, remaining nearly stationary and without a defined direction.
The meteorologist indicated that by Sunday a significant change could occur: if the wind shear decreases, Melissa could align vertically, rapidly strengthen, and transform into a hurricane, even of great intensity, due to the high heat content of the western Caribbean Sea.
In that scenario, a new trough coming from the southwest of the United States could "capture" it and redirect its movement toward the north or northeast, which would pose a danger to Cuba.
Rubiera requested maximum attention and vigilance, especially between Sunday and Monday, without succumbing to alarmism, but reminding that the country must be prepared for the possible threat.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC), for its part, confirmed that Melissa continues to move slowly and that it could become a hurricane in the next 48 hours.
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