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Tropical storm Melissa continues to reorganize over the warm waters of the central Caribbean, while the National Hurricane Center (NHC) warns of heavy rains, the risk of flooding, and landslides in several islands in the region, with immediate attention focused particularly on Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Jamaica.
Although Cuba is not currently subject to official alerts, the agency explicitly includes it among the countries that should closely monitor the development of the phenomenon, which could intensify to hurricane strength in the coming hours.
Melissa is gaining strength and is approaching the western Caribbean
According to the bulletin issued at 5:00 AM EDT this Wednesday, Melissa was located near latitude 14.3 N and longitude 73.5 W, approximately 495 km south-southwest of Port-au-Prince, Haiti.
It had maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h and was slowly moving to the west-northwest at a speed of 11 km/h.
The atmospheric and oceanic conditions suggest a gradual strengthening, with a high likelihood that Melissa will become a hurricane on Thursday or Friday, as it approaches the southwest of Haiti and Jamaica.
"A gradual strengthening is expected over the next few days, and Melissa could become a hurricane on Thursday," the NHC anticipated.
Hurricane alert for Haiti and tropical storm warning for Jamaica
Meteorological authorities have issued a hurricane alert for the southwest peninsula of Haiti, from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-au-Prince, and a tropical storm alert for all of Jamaica.
This means that in less than 48 hours, destructive winds, torrential rains, and dangerous storm surges could occur.
Although Cuba is not under direct alert, the NHC indicated that "interests in other parts of Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Melissa", suggesting that the country could be indirectly affected, especially in its eastern regions.
What is expected for Cuba?
Current forecasts do not place Cuba in the main trajectory of Melissa, but the peripheral effects of the system could be felt in the form of moderate rainfall and coastal swells, especially in the eastern part of the country.
Accumulations of 2 to 7 cm of rain are expected in eastern Cuba, along with possible rip currents in the next 48 hours, generated by the oceanic activity of the system.
The latest trajectory models, known as "spaghetti", as well as the intensity models, indicate that Melissa will not leave the Caribbean quickly. This possibility is becoming increasingly unlikely, as the system seems to be taking longer to consolidate, which will push it further west. This scenario poses a greater risk to Cuban territory," warned meteorologist Raydel Ruisánchez on Facebook.
"Melissa will remain over very warm waters of the Caribbean Sea for the rest of the week, and the winds in the upper atmosphere will become more favorable, suggesting a significant intensification south of Cuba. Although it may seem contradictory, the fact that Melissa is weak right now could prove unfavorable for us in Cuba in the long term, the specialist added."
In the last few hours, journalist Lázaro Manuel Alono shared on social media the update on the two forecast models that pose the greatest danger to Cuba.
A direct impact as a storm or hurricane is not expected at this time, but experts advise staying alert, especially if the system changes its speed or course in the coming days.
Flooding and landslides: The major threat in the region
The greatest danger associated with Melissa lies not only in its winds but in the immense amount of water it carries.
The NHC estimates that southern Haiti, southern Dominican Republic, and eastern Jamaica could receive between 12 and 25 centimeters of rain until Saturday, with potential localized accumulations exceeding that amount.
These rains, over mountainous and already saturated terrain, could lead to flash floods, river surges, and catastrophic landslides.
Even in areas farther from the center of the storm, such as northern Haiti, northern Dominican Republic, and western Jamaica, rainfall of 5 to 10 cm is expected.
For Aruba, Puerto Rico, and the eastern regions of Cuba, the forecast is between 2 and 7 cm.
"The combination of torrential rains and mountainous terrain is a recipe for dangerous flash flooding and landslides," warns the NHC report.
Two possible paths, both with risks
The current models indicate two likely scenarios for Melissa's trajectory:
Scenario A (most likely): The storm turns north and heads toward Hispaniola (Haiti and the Dominican Republic), where it could arrive as a category 1 hurricane on Saturday. This scenario would also impact Jamaica and increase the risk for the coasts of Cuba in the event of a wider turn.
Scenario B (less likely): Melissa continues moving westward, approaching Central America (Nicaragua or Honduras) by mid-next week. In that case, the northern Caribbean would receive lighter but prolonged rain for several days, and Cuba could be in the path if the turn is delayed.
Both possibilities present regional challenges, and the level of uncertainty remains high due to the slow pace of the system and its changing atmospheric environment.
Is there a risk for the United States?
At the moment, the likelihood of Melissa making a direct impact on the continental U.S. is low, although it cannot be entirely ruled out.
Florida and the East Coast could experience strong waves and rip currents by next week.
Recent cases, such as Hurricane Nicole in November 2022 and Hurricane Zeta in October 2020, demonstrate that late-season cyclones can be equally dangerous, warns CNN.
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