The renowned Cuban meteorologist, José Rubiera, alerted this Tuesday about the evolution of Tropical Storm Melissa, a system that, as he explained on his YouTube channel, should be closely monitored in the coming days due to the high uncertainty surrounding its path and development.

Rubiera, widely respected for his expertise in tracking hurricanes in the Caribbean region, was emphatic: “We need to stay well informed because Melissa is going to be around for several days.”

He warned that, while the system does not currently pose a clear threat to Cuba, its development in the coming days could change that situation.

A developing system for warm waters

The meteorologist explained that Melissa is currently located over the central Caribbean, where warm waters are conducive to its strengthening.

“The development will occur over the next 48 to 72 hours, as it slowly moves over very warm waters,” he noted.

He added that, while not all conditions for an immediate explosive development are in place, the system does exhibit characteristics that suggest a gradual intensification.

“The structure it has is very healthy”, he said; although he noted that “not all conditions are in place for a rapid, explosive development, because there are some winds in the upper atmosphere.”

Despite these unfavorable winds aloft, Melissa will continue to gain organization and strength slowly but steadily.

Uncertain trajectory and extremely slow movement

One of the most alarming points highlighted by Rubiera was the significant uncertainty regarding the movement of the system. “We cannot know exactly where it is headed, which gives us a waiting game that could last several days,” he explained.

The storm is moving very slowly, almost at a standstill, due to the lack of a guiding current in the atmosphere defining its path.

"This slow movement could also involve parking zones," he warned, emphasizing that this unusual behavior could prolong the presence of heavy rain and thunderstorms in certain areas of the Caribbean.

Rubiera insisted that it is currently impossible to determine the final path that Melissa will take: “What we don't know is where it will go after that stagnation. We can't know it because at this moment we do not have the elements to be able to know.”

This is why they constantly urge to stay informed through the daily weather reports.

Divided forecasting models

The expert meteorologist reviewed the main prediction models, highlighting the significant divergence among them.

"All the models show a significant divergence. Very slow movement and stagnation due to the lack of a guiding current," he reiterated.

About the specific models, he indicated that the GFS model (from the Global Forecast System) has exhibited certain changes in recent days: “The GFS model shows some changes compared to previous days because it places trajectories further west than it did before.”

In contrast, “the model of the European center has also changed because it positions some trajectories further north, but it keeps the bulk of the trajectory toward the west.”

Regarding the National Hurricane Center of the United States (NHC), it explained that “it has issued a trajectory cone that is unusual, because it implies a circle, due to the slow movement being forecasted for Melissa over the next 72 hours.”

Amidst so much uncertainty, Rubiera emphasized that the best tool for the population is the constant monitoring of weather updates.

“Three, four, or five days, and when a guiding current comes that starts to move it, we will have an idea of where it's headed. What we need to do then is to stay informed and check the updates each day,” he concluded.

The Forecast Center of the Meteorological Institute (INSMET) of Cuba issued its Tropical Cyclone Advisory No. 3 on the morning of Wednesday, October 22, warning that, despite the slow movement of the tropical storm Melissa over the central Caribbean Sea, the system poses a “potential threat” to the island, thus necessitating close monitoring of its development.