The meteorologist José Rubiera reported this Saturday that Melissa is now a hurricane, it's rapidly gaining strength over the very warm waters of the Caribbean and shows clear signs of internal organization.
In his YouTube channel, the expert warned that it could arrive as a highly intense hurricane for eastern Cuba and that, although the vortex “is still not completely vertical”, it would be “in a few hours.”
This condition, combined with the exceptionally high ocean energy —waters of 30–31 °C with a warm layer up to 120 meters thick— promotes a rapid intensification of the system.
Rubiera placed the center of the hurricane about 200 kilometers southeast of Kingston (Jamaica) and emphasized that rain is the primary danger in the short term for the south of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, where very high accumulations have already occurred in recent days.
For Jamaica, it pointed out a exceptionally dire scenario: accumulations of 500 to 750 millimeters over three days (Saturday, Sunday, and Monday) in mountainous areas, with flooding, landslides, and very strong surges on the southern coast, in addition to intense hurricane-force winds persisting unusually long due to the slow movement of the cyclone near the island. It characterized what could happen there as a catastrophic event.
About the trajectory, he explained that the models —previously scattered— have now concentrated and show a turn towards the northeast when an upper-level trough "captures" the system.
Even with that greater coherence, he insisted that it is not possible to pinpoint the exact impact point: the range of solutions includes various entries from the eastern part of Cuba to an option through Haiti.
Despite everything, he considered that the danger is increasing for the eastern region of Cuba between Tuesday and Wednesday, with very heavy rainfall that would start much earlier, intense winds and dangerous swells on the southern coast and, subsequently, also on the northern coast, as the system crosses and speeds up its exit towards the Atlantic.
The specialist pointed out that the set of trajectories extends over eastern Cuba and the Haitian area, and that the official cone from the National Hurricane Center appears to be narrower now than it was days ago, indicating greater reliability in the overall scenario, although "many things still need to be clarified" regarding timing and crossing point.
He emphasized that the hurricane should not be seen "as a point," because its impacts cover a vast area that extends beyond the central line of the forecast.
In his operational conclusion, Rubiera requested to follow the information step by step.
The rain will continue to hit the south of Hispaniola over the weekend; Jamaica will face several days of winds, rough seas, and flooding; and, once the trough accelerates the system, the east of Cuba could experience the effects of a major hurricane, with the advantage that the transition would be quicker than in Jamaica, reducing the exposure time—although not the danger—of the main effects.
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