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During the past few days, the informal currency market in Cuba has taken a turn as abrupt as it is perplexing.
After months of continuous increases, the dollar and the euro have fallen by more than 10% in just one week, breaking a streak that seemed unstoppable.
However, while the currencies are declining in the charts, the prices of food and basic goods continue to rise in the agromarkets and in the black market.
The contradiction has sparked a mix of surprise, disbelief, and suspicion among Cubans. On social media, many recall a phrase that originated in the nineties during the Special Period: "The dollar doesn't drop; it bends down to gain momentum."
A fall without economic rationale
The dollar exceeded 490 Cuban pesos, and the euro managed to stabilize at around 540 Cuban pesos (CUP) for nearly a week, before the recent and notable collapse of both currencies, with no economic announcement intervening.
Neither has the supply of foreign currency increased, nor has the government stabilized the market, nor have prices for basic goods decreased. On the contrary: inflation remains high and the purchasing power of the Cuban peso continues to decline.
The economist Pedro Monreal suggested that the decline could be influenced by the expectation of an increase in remittances following the recent natural disasters in the Caribbean, although he clarified that this is not an immediate impact, but rather a psychological effect.
Other economists and users disagreed, asserting that the informal market is driven by speculative factors, the inherent volatility of the system, and potential distortions in data collection, given the disconnection of several provinces and the lack of transparency in the indicator.
Suspicions and theories
Amid the confusion, theories are multiplying. Some users believe that there is indirect intervention or manipulation to simulate an artificial stabilization of the peso and discredit El Toque, the outlet that publishes the Representative Rate of the Informal Market (TRMI).
Others point to a natural "technical correction" after months of increases, while independent economists insist that the phenomenon reveals distorted expectations and the influence of political or media campaigns on the behavior of a market that, by definition, lacks regulation and transparency.
Prices aren’t going down; life remains the same
Beyond the charts, everyday economic conditions contradict any signs of recovery.
Food prices continue to soar: rice, oil, pork, root vegetables, and eggs cost more every day. The same is true for hygiene products, medications, and services.
Under normal circumstances, the appreciation of the peso against the dollar should result in a decrease in prices, but in Cuba, the opposite occurs. The reason is simple: the exchange rate does not reflect the real economy, but rather the perceptions, rumors, and restrictions of an informal market that operates without transparency.
The exchange rate seems to be moving in a dimension detached from reality. In people's pockets, the peso is not worth more; only the dollar appears to be worth less on paper.
The scarcity, fear of a new devaluation, and general distrust lead sellers to continue setting high prices. In the end, the supposed recovery of the Cuban peso only exists in the charts, not in people's pockets.
Manipulation or distortion?
The most prevalent theories among the population go beyond economic factors.
Many Cubans suspect that there is a visible hand behind the informal market, capable of intervening at specific moments in the exchange rates to create the illusion of stability or to discredit independent actors.
In this regard, the recent accusations from the regime and spokespersons like Sandro Castro against the media outlet El Toque have fueled the perception that there could be a political or media operation aimed at undermining the credibility of alternative indicators.
Other users pointed out a technical issue: the geographical bias in data collection, due to internet outages and disconnections in several provinces. If the sample is concentrated in Havana or in areas with better connectivity, the rates would only reflect part of the market.
Mipymes between criticism and speculation
In this context of uncertainty, criticism of the behavior of some private Mipymes is also increasing, as they are accused of taking advantage of market volatility.
The user Manuel Viera published a that has gone viral, in which he recounted how he tried to change a 10-dollar bill to buy food and no one was willing to accept it.
In his complaint, he stated that several private businesses refuse to sell for cash dollars, even though their prices are precisely calculated in that currency.
"If a 10-pound package of chicken costs 10 dollars, why can't I pay for it with 10 dollars?" he questions. "They're not losing; they just want to make a few extra pesos on the exchange tomorrow. Sometimes they seem more like bankers than merchants."
His reflection highlighted a fundamental problem: some entrepreneurs are acting as financial speculators, adjusting their prices based on the expected exchange rate for the following day and refusing to accept the currency in which they conduct their operations.
That behavior, described by Viera as "abuse and usury," reinforces the perception that the market is dominated by a speculative and opportunistic logic rather than a productive one.
Between perception and reality
The result is an economy where the dollar decreases, but nothing else drops. The average citizen watches as prices continue to rise while currencies "fall," sensing a manipulation that no one can fully explain.
Analysts agree: the Cuban informal market does not behave like a free market, but rather as a space influenced by rumors, expectations, and political pressures. The current downtrend seems more like a temporary respite than a sign of recovery for the Cuban peso.
On the streets, few believe it. And amid skepticism and irony, a phrase resonates that has become part of the popular lexicon of the crisis: “The dollar doesn’t go down, it crouches to gain momentum.”
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