The price of the US dollar fell again this Tuesday in the informal Cuban market, extending a downward trend that has now lasted for more than a week and keeping buyers and currency resellers across the island on alert.
According to data published by El Toque in its representative rate of the informal market, the dollar opened today at 430 Cuban pesos (CUP), ten pesos less than on the previous day.
The decline confirms a downward trend that, so far, lacks a clear explanation in the country's economic fundamentals.
For its part, the euro remains stable at 500 CUP, while the freely convertible currency (MLC) dropped another five pesos, now standing at 200 CUP per unit, its lowest level in several weeks.
Exchange Rate Evolution
Informal exchange rate in Cuba Tuesday, November 4, 2025 - 05:54
- Exchange rate of the dollar (USD) to Cuban pesos CUP: 430 CUP
- Exchange rate of the euro (EUR) to Cuban pesos CUP: 500 CUP
- Exchange rate from (MLC) to Cuban pesos CUP: 200 CUP
Bill equivalence according to the black market
US Dollar (USD → CUP)
- 1 USD = 430 CUP
- 5 USD = 2,150 CUP
- 10 USD = 4,300 CUP
- 20 USD = 8,600 CUP
- 50 USD = 21,500 CUP
- 100 USD = 43,000 CUP
Euro (EUR → CUP)
- 5 EUR = 2,500 CUP
- 10 EUR = 5,000 CUP
- 20 EUR = 10,000 CUP
- 50 EUR = 25,000 CUP
- 100 EUR = 50,000 CUP
- 200 EUR = 100,000 CUP
- 500 EUR = 250,000 CUP
Unexplained losing streak
In just over a week, the dollar has lost more than 50 pesos in the parallel market, a decline of about 10% compared to its highs at the end of October.
Consulted economists point out that there are no structural changes to justify this sudden appreciation of the Cuban peso: inflation remains high, food and service prices continue to rise, and the government has not implemented significant monetary measures.
The economist Pedro Monreal suggested recently that a potential expectation of increased remittances could be influencing the decline, although he warned that the actual effect would be minimal and temporary.
Other specialists and users pointed to psychological factors, data biases, and even indirect intervention or manipulation of the informal market, especially following the official campaigns against El Toque, which has been accused by the regime of "influencing" the value of foreign currencies.
Prices are rising despite the fall of the dollar
While the dollar falls, the prices of basic goods continue to rise. In agricultural markets and on the black market, rice, pork, oil, and root vegetables cost more than they did a week ago.
That contradiction reinforces popular skepticism. Many Cubans wonder how it is possible for the value of the dollar to decrease while prices in CUP continue to rise. On social media, the most commonly repeated phrase is an old saying from the Special Period: “The dollar doesn’t go down, it crouches down to gain momentum.”
An opaque and volatile market
Analysts agree that the Cuban informal market is not governed by stable laws of supply and demand, but rather by perceptions, rumors, and political reactions.
The current decline could be just a temporary correction before a new surge, in the context of uncontrolled inflation, a lack of foreign currency, and widespread distrust in the Cuban peso.
For now, the dollar continues to decline, but no one on the street is celebrating: Cuban money still isn't enough, and prices continue to reflect the true extent of the crisis.
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