The informal currency market in Cuba wakes up this Monday with a spike in the price of the dollar and the euro in Cuba for the second consecutive day.
According to the daily report released on November 10, the independent media elTOQUE revealed that in recent hours, the sale of the dollar increased to 430 CUP, which is 10 pesos more than the value reached on the previous day.
The European currency also rises, from 455 to 460 CUP, five units higher than the previous day.
The Representative Rate of the Informal Market (TRMi) shows that the Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) remains stable at 205 CUP.
Exchange Rate Evolution
Exchange rate today 10/11/2025 - 7:10 a.m. in Cuba:
Exchange rate of the dollar USD to CUP according to elTOQUE: 430 CUP.
Exchange rate of the euro EUR to CUP according to elTOQUE: 460 CUP.
Exchange rate of MLC to CUP according to elTOQUE: 205 CUP.
Change in the trend of the informal market?
After several days of consecutive declines, the informal currency market in Cuba is recording a second day of increases this Monday, in a movement that could signal the beginning of a new upward trend.
The change breaks the downward trend that had settled in the informal market since the end of October, when the dollar fell from 485 to 410 CUP and the euro from 540 to 450 CUP, in a rapid downward movement that represented a decrease of nearly 100 Cuban pesos in its exchange rate over a period of 10 days.
However, it now seems that the market is once again reacting to the pressure of demand and the general uncertainty that pervades the national economy.
The informal Cuban market tends to react quickly to any changes in supply or perceptions of stability regarding the peso.
Since 2022, the trend has been a constant devaluation of the national currency, only briefly interrupted by short pauses or temporary declines that never succeed in reversing the sustained deterioration of the CUP.
The persistent inflation, the lack of official currency, and the lack of trust in the regime's economic institutions continue to drive demand for dollars and euros as a safe haven for value.
In addition, the cash shortage and banking connectivity issues on the island limit formal transactions, further fueling the parallel market.
While the government remains silent about the promised "floating rate" announced by Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz at the end of 2024, the gap between the official exchange rate and the informal one continues to widen.
On the street, Cubans watch the screens of the digital market with resignation, aware that every rise in the dollar or euro translates to a new blow to the cost of living.
Although it is too early to know if this rebound will indicate a sustained trend, the return of the rise in currencies confirms that the informal market remains the most reliable gauge of the Cuban economic crisis and the deep mistrust in the national peso.
Equivalence of US Dollar (USD) Bills to Cuban Peso (CUP) according to the exchange rates on this November 10th:
1 USD = 430 CUP.
5 USD = 2,150 CUP.
10 USD = 4,300 CUP.
20 USD = 8,600 CUP.
50 USD = 21,500 CUP.
100 USD = 43,000 CUP.
Equivalence of Euro (EUR) banknotes to Cuban Peso (CUP):
1 EUR = 460 CUP.
5 EUR = 2,300 CUP.
10 EUR = 4,600 CUP.
20 EUR = 9,200 CUP.
50 EUR = 23,000 CUP.
100 EUR = 46,000 CUP.
200 EUR = 92,000 CUP.
In an article published last week, elTOQUE explained why the value of the dollar and the euro in the informal Cuban market rises and falls periodically, but almost never returns to its starting point.
The text attributed that behavior to the economic phenomenon known as "exchange rate overshooting" or overshooting, which occurs when currencies spike following a change in expectations and then partially decline, without returning to the previous level.
elTOQUE stated that since 2022 this pattern has repeated itself several times -in 2022, 2023, and 2024- with speculative peaks followed by corrections.
In 2024, the outlet also detected coordinated digital campaigns from accounts associated with the Government aimed at temporarily distorting market perception and discrediting the Representative Rate of the Informal Market (TRMI).
In contrast, during 2025, the movement of the dollar and the euro has been more stable and less abrupt, although the recent drop in their values may indicate a new correction.
elTOQUE concluded by warning that, although official propaganda may create temporary drops in the rate, the structural causes of the peso devaluation - inflation, fiscal deficit, and distrust - remain intact, and the market eventually readjusts to its reality.
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