The informal currency market in Cuba starts this Tuesday with a new increase in the price of the dollar and the euro in Cuba for the third consecutive day, as revealed in its daily report by the independent media elTOQUE.
After several days of declining sale prices, the informal market shows signs of recovery, which could turn into a new upward trend.
In recent hours, the dollar sale increased to 440 CUP, which is 10 pesos more than the value it reached on the previous day.
The European currency also rises, from 460 to 470 CUP, 10 units more than the previous day.
Exchange Rate Evolution
Although it is too early to determine whether this uptick will mark a sustained trend, the return of rising exchange rates confirms that the informal market remains the most reliable gauge of the Cuban economic crisis and the deep-seated distrust in the national peso.
The Representative Rate of the Informal Market (TRMi) indicates that the Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) remains stable at 205 CUP.
Exchange rate today 11/11/2025 - 6:20 a.m. in Cuba:
Dollar exchange rate USD to CUP according to elTOQUE: 440 CUP.
Exchange rate of the euro EUR to CUP according to elTOQUE: 470 CUP.
Exchange rate of MLC to CUP according to elTOQUE: 205 CUP.
Change in the trend of the informal market?
The change breaks the downward trend that had settled in the informal market since late October, when the dollar fell from 485 to 410 CUP and the euro from 540 to 450 CUP, in a rapid downward movement that resulted in a decrease of almost 100 Cuban pesos in its exchange rate over a period of 10 days.
However, it now seems that the market is once again responding to the pressure of demand and the general uncertainty that dominates the national economy.
The Cuban informal market tends to react quickly to any changes in supply or in the perception of the peso's stability.
Since 2022, the trend has been a constant devaluation of the national currency, only briefly interrupted by short pauses or momentary declines that never manage to reverse the sustained deterioration of the CUP.
Persistent inflation, the lack of foreign currency, and the distrust in the regime's economic institutions continue to drive the demand for dollars and euros as a safe haven.
In addition, the cash shortage and banking connectivity issues on the island limit formal transactions, further fueling the parallel market.
While the government remains silent on the promised "floating rate" announced by Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz at the end of 2024, the gap between the official exchange rate and the informal one continues to widen.
Equivalence of United States Dollar (USD) to Cuban Peso (CUP), according to the exchange rates for this November 11th:
1 USD = 440 CUP.
5 USD = 2,200 CUP.
10 USD = 4,400 CUP.
20 USD = 8,800 CUP.
50 USD = 22,000 CUP.
100 USD = 44,000 CUP.
Equivalence of Euro banknotes (EUR) to Cuban Peso (CUP):
1 EUR = 470 CUP.
5 EUR = 2,350 CUP.
10 EUR = 4,700 CUP.
20 EUR = 9,400 CUP.
50 EUR = 23,500 CUP.
100 EUR = 47,000 CUP.
200 EUR = 94,000 CUP.
500 EUR = 235,000 CUP.
In an article published last week, elTOQUE explained why the value of the dollar and the euro in the Cuban informal market periodically rises and falls, but almost never returns to its starting point.
The text attributed this behavior to the economic phenomenon known as "exchange rate overshooting", which occurs when currencies spike following a change in expectations and then partially decrease, without returning to the previous level.
elTOQUE stated that since 2022 this pattern has repeated itself several times -in 2022, 2023, and 2024- with speculative peaks followed by corrections.
In 2024, the media also detected coordinated digital campaigns from accounts associated with the government to temporarily distort market perception and discredit the Representative Rate of the Informal Market (TRMI).
In contrast, during 2025, the movement of the dollar and the euro has been more steady and less abrupt, although the recent drop in their values could suggest a new correction is on the horizon.
elTOQUE concluded by warning that, although official propaganda may lead to temporary decreases in the rate, the structural causes of the devaluation of the peso -inflation, fiscal deficit, and lack of trust- remain intact, and the market ultimately adjusts back to its reality.
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