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The energy crisis in Cuba continues to deepen and is nearing levels of structural collapse, according to the information published on November 30 by the Unión Eléctrica (UNE).
The UNE acknowledged that the electrical service was affected for 24 hours on Saturday, with a peak deficit of 1,775 MW at 6:30 p.m., a figure that makes it clear that the generation structure is unable to sustain even the minimum demand of the country.
At the very beginning of the morning, at 6:00 AM this Sunday, the availability was only 1570 MW against a real demand of 2460 MW, which meant starting the day with a deficit of 950 MW, even before peak consumption hours began.
For the half-hour period, a power disruption of 1050 MW is expected.
The situation of the system is the result of a chain of failures that have been worsening while the Government attempts to explain the crisis without taking responsibility.
Among the most serious problems is the breakdown of unit 2 at the Felton thermoelectric plant, one of the key facilities for sustaining the country's base generation.
Additionally, four other thermoelectric units—Mariel 5, Santa Cruz 2, Carlos Manuel de Céspedes 4 in Cienfuegos, and Nuevitas 6—remain out of service due to maintenance that repeatedly coincides with peak demand periods for the population.
The thermal generation, which should be the main support of the SEN, remains limited and has 534 MW unavailable, leaving the system operating with minimal and extremely vulnerable margins.
But the biggest blow comes, as is almost always the case, from the lack of fuel: the UNE acknowledged that 96 distributed generation facilities are inactive due to this reason, which means 895 MW out of the system solely because of a shortage of diesel.
This deficit is compounded by an additional 68 MW that cannot operate due to a lack of lubricants.
In total, 963 MW are lost solely due to issues related to hydrocarbon supply, a situation that can no longer be attributed to "temporary tensions," but rather to the structural deterioration of the national energy chain.
With such a outlook, the forecast for peak hours is bleak.
The UNE anticipates a maximum demand of 3,250 MW compared to an availability that does not exceed 1,570 MW. The direct consequence would be a deficit of 1,680 MW, which would translate into an estimated impact of 1,750 MW for the evening.
In other words: prolonged and widespread blackouts across the country.
Not even the 33 new solar parks presented by the Government as part of its strategy to "alleviate" the crisis make a significant difference.
Although they produced 2255 MWh and reached 473 MW of power at noon, their contribution is insufficient to compensate for the collapse of thermal generation, which remains the core of the Cuban electrical system.
In Havana, where circuits have historically been prioritized, the outlook was not encouraging either.
The provincial Electric Company confirmed that the capital was affected for 10 hours and 45 minutes during the previous day, with a maximum of 287 MW disconnected at 6:00 PM.
The service was not fully restored until 9:45 PM, although there were no issues during the early morning hours.
Meanwhile, the government continues to lack a convincing plan that offers a glimpse of a way out.
The current crisis is no longer the result of isolated events or "unexpected breaks": it is the accumulated outcome of decades of improvisation, technological neglect, and lack of real investment in the national electrical system.
The country remains in darkness, and the only light available is that of an official speech that can no longer hide the depth of the collapse.
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