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Cuba will experience this Friday one of the darkest days of the year - both literally and symbolically.
The Electric Union (UNE) has forecasted in its report for today widespread blackouts that will affect up to 61% of the national territory simultaneously during peak demand hours, an unprecedented figure that sets a new record in the prolonged energy crisis affecting the island.
The UNE, under the Ministry of Energy and Mines (MINEM), estimates that peak demand will reach a maximum of 3,400 megawatts (MW), while the available generation capacity will only reach 1,392 MW.
This implies a deficit of 2,008 MW, and an estimated impact of 2,078 MW; that is, more than half of the country without electrical service at the same time.
The agency Efe has calculated that the energy impact will reach 61% of the Cuban population, representing the highest rate recorded to date.
On Monday, December 1st, a record had already been set with 59% of the population affected.
Just two days later, a partial blackout left almost all of the western part of the country in the dark, with a real deficit of 67% during the night.
A collapsed system: Thermoelectrics, engines, and fuels in crisis
The causes of the collapse of the National Electrical System (SEN) are numerous, but they all converge on a landscape of outdated infrastructure, lack of maintenance, and fuel shortages.
According to the UNE, seven out of the 16 operational thermoelectric units are currently out of service due to breakdowns or maintenance, including key plants such as CTE Diez de Octubre, Felton, Renté, and Santa Cruz.
These plants contribute almost 40% of the Cuban energy mix.
Additionally, in the report for this Friday, the paralysis of 97 distributed generation centers is noted, which should be operating with diesel and fuel oil, but are currently halted due to a lack of fuel.
Another ten are inactive due to a lack of lubricants. In total, over 1,000 MW are offline for this reason.
In Moa, for example, five motors from the Fuel system are not operational, resulting in an additional loss of 68 MW, while another 72 MW are unavailable due to a lack of lubricant, according to the official report.
Chronicles of an Announced Blackout
The situation is not new. Since mid-2024, Cuba has fallen into an increasingly critical energy spiral. The daily reports from the UNE confirm that the country has experienced entire days of power outages.
This Thursday, the impact was continuous throughout the 24 hours and reached a peak of 1,982 MW at 7:00 PM.
The Electric Company of Havana, for its part, also acknowledged that "it was not possible to adhere to the scheduled power cuts" due to low availability.
Electric service in the capital was interrupted since 2:10 PM, affecting 271 MW by 7:10 PM, and was not restored until dawn on Friday.
Beyond Darkness: A Structural Crisis
The Cuban regime has repeatedly justified the crisis by citing a "lack of foreign currency and the age of the system," and it points to the economic sanctions imposed by the United States as the main obstacle to renewing the energy sector.
On several occasions, he has accused Washington of conducting a policy of "energy suffocation."
However, independent experts offer a different interpretation.
They point out that the root of the problem lies in decades of underfunding, corruption, and centralized management.
The Cuban electrical system, fully controlled by the state since 1959, has deteriorated without significant investments.
According to various studies, between 8 billion and 10 billion dollars would be needed to minimally revive the national electrical system, an unimaginable figure given the current economic conditions of the country.
Solar parks: Insufficient relief
In the midst of the general collapse, the 33 new photovoltaic solar parks in the country provide a minimal respite.
According to the official report, they produced 2,722 MWh on Thursday, with a maximum output of 516 MW during midday.
However, this energy source, while necessary, is not nearly sufficient to meet the country's demand during critical hours.
While technical reports provide numbers and percentages, the reality in Cuban households translates to endless nights without ventilation or cooling, an inability to cook or preserve food, and insomnia caused by the heat and mosquitoes.
Each new blackout adds to the collective exhaustion, while the government continues to promise "medium-term" solutions.
The population, however, lives in a present marked by uncertainty and hopelessness, with the feeling that the energy crisis—like so many others on the island—has come to stay.
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