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The Central Bank of Cuba (BCC) published on Thursday, December 18, 2025, the new official exchange rates that will apply at currency exchange houses (CADECA) within the so-called "transformed exchange market."
For the first time, a "floating" rate is included that, according to the government, will be updated daily based on supply and demand.
However, the comparison with the rates of the informal market published by the independent media El Toque demonstrates that the reality of the Cuban wallet remains far from the official numbers.
Official rates at CADECA (December 18, 2025)
- United States dollar (USD): buy at 401.80 CUP, sell at 418.20 CUP
- Euro (EUR): buy at 471.79 CUP, sell at 491.05 CUP
- MLC (equivalent to the banking USD): not listed, but it is assumed to be within the same range as the dollar.
These figures represent the first "floating rate" announced by the BCC, within Segment III of the new exchange scheme.
In practice, this means that the official dollar is approaching 400 pesos, a significant jump from the previous exchange rate of 120 CUP, but still well below the real value on the street market.
Comparison with the informal market
According to the independent monitor El Toque, which tracks the behavior of transactions between individuals through a methodology that averages currency buy-sell advertisements on social media in real time, the informal rates for this December 18 are:
- Dollar (USD): 440 CUP
- Euro (EUR): 480 CUP
- MLC: 300 CUP
This means that the dollar on the street is worth nearly 40 pesos more than at CADECA, and the euro is only 10 pesos higher.
That gap —which the government is trying to close with the new "floating rate"— shows that the state market continues to operate behind the economic reality of the country.
Why is there such a difference?
The gap between official and informal exchange rates has a structural cause: the scarcity of foreign currency in the hands of the State and the widespread distrust in the Cuban peso.
In other words: the regime does not have enough dollars to supply the official market, which is why it restricts sales and sets a value that does not reflect the true supply and demand.
Meanwhile, Cubans who receive remittances or work with foreign currency will prefer to exchange them in the informal market, where the price is higher and transactions are immediate.
That dynamic causes the black market to continue setting the pace. Although the Central Bank speaks of "controlled flotation," in practice, there is no flotation: there is manipulation.
As several economists explain, including Mauricio de Miranda Parrondo, multiple exchange rates —such as those maintained by the regime— only segment the market and create distortions.
The population, which does not have access to the privileged segments (1x24 and 1x120), ends up bearing the cost of those differences.
The Mirage of the Floating Rate
The BCC stated that the rate for Segment III "will be adjusted daily according to the actual conditions of the economy."
However, as long as the State remains the only entity controlling the currency supply and operations are limited to a few CADECA branches, that "floating" will be merely symbolic.
In other words, the dollar floats, but in a closed fishbowl.
The announcement of a rate of 401.80 CUP for purchases may seem like an attempt to align with the real market, but it still does not address the underlying issue: ordinary Cubans cannot freely access dollars or euros.
The outcome will be predictable: the informal market will continue to be the true barometer of the Cuban economy.
In summary
The Central Bank attempts to show with this new rate that the State "listens to the market," but the gap between official prices and real prices reveals that the system remains disconnected from everyday life.
The measure does not eliminate the informal market; it only legitimizes it as a real reference.
As long as the economy remains under centralized control and without a transparent currency unification, every Cuban will continue to do their calculations based on El Toque's rate, not CADECA's.
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