Related videos:
The Central Bank of Cuba (BCC) published this Thursday, December 18, 2025, the new official exchange rates that will apply in the currency exchange houses (CADECA) within the so-called "transformed exchange market."
For the first time, a “floating” rate is included that, according to the regime, will be updated daily based on supply and demand.
However, the comparison with the rates from the informal market published by the independent media El Toque shows that the reality of the Cuban wallet remains far from the official figures.
Official rates at CADECA (December 18, 2025)
- US Dollar (USD): buy at 401.80 CUP, sell at 418.20 CUP
- Euro (EUR): buy at 471.79 CUP, sell at 491.05 CUP
- MLC (equivalent to the bank USD): it is not listed, but it is assumed to be within the same range as the dollar.
These figures represent the first "floating rate" announced by the BCC, within Segment III of the new exchange rate framework.
In practice, this means that the official dollar is approaching 400 pesos, a considerable jump from the previous exchange rate of 120 CUP, but still far below the actual value in the street market.
Comparison with the informal market
According to the independent monitor El Toque, which tracks the behavior of transactions between individuals using a methodology that averages the buy and sell advertisements for currencies on social media in real-time, the informal rates for this December 18 are:
- Dollar (USD): 440 CUP
- Euro (EUR): 480 CUP
- MLC: 300 CUP
This means that the dollar on the street is worth almost 40 pesos more than at CADECA, and the euro is only 10 pesos above.
That gap—which the government is trying to close with the new "floating rate"—demonstrates that the state market continues to operate behind the economic reality of the country.
Why is there such a difference?
The gap between official and informal rates has a structural cause: the shortage of foreign currency in the hands of the State and the widespread distrust in the Cuban peso.
In other words: the regime does not have enough dollars to supply the official market, which is why it restricts sales and sets a price that does not reflect the true supply and demand.
Meanwhile, Cubans who receive remittances or work with foreign currency will prefer to exchange it in the informal market, where the price is higher and transactions are immediate.
This dynamic causes the black market to continue setting the pace. Although the Central Bank speaks of "controlled floating," in practice there is no floating: there is manipulation.
As several economists explain, including Mauricio de Miranda Parrondo, multiple exchange rates —like those maintained by the regime— only segment the market and create distortions.
The population, which does not have access to the privileged segments (1x24 and 1x120), ultimately pays the price for those disparities.
The mirage of the floating rate
The BCC assured that the rate of Segment III "will be adjusted daily according to the real conditions of the economy."
However, as long as the State remains the sole controller of the currency supply and operations are limited to a few CADECA branches, that "floating" will be merely symbolic.
In other words, the dollar floats, but in a closed fishbowl.
The announcement of a rate of 401.80 CUP for purchases may seem like an attempt to come closer to the real market, but it still does not address the underlying problem: ordinary Cubans cannot freely access dollars or euros.
The outcome will be predictable: the informal market will remain the true barometer of the Cuban economy.
In summary
The Central Bank is trying to convey with this new rate that the State "is listening to the market," but the gap between official and real prices shows that the system remains disconnected from daily life.
The measure does not eliminate the informal market; it simply legitimizes it as a real reference.
As long as the economy remains under centralized control and without a transparent exchange unification, every Cuban will continue to do their calculations using El Toque's rate, not CADECA's.
Filed under: