Cuban government reveals budget for 2026: How much is it in USD according to the "floating" rate?

The Cuban regime presented this week the draft of the State Budget for 2026 with total projected expenditures of 550,590 million pesos (CUP).

Converted to US dollars using the official "floating" rate of the Central Bank of Cuba (BCC) currently in effect (1 USD = 409 CUP), that amount is equivalent to only 1.346 billion USD.

The Minister of Finance and Prices, Vladimir Regueiro Ale, stated before the National Assembly that the budget was designed for an economy with “limited growth” and in line with the Government Program to “correct distortions and boost the economy,” with an emphasis on fiscal discipline and support for social programs.

He also described a "complex" context, characterized by inflationary pressures, energy limitations, increased demand for social protection, the need to stimulate domestic production and reduce imports, and the "burden" of the U.S. economic blockade, according to his presentation.

The amount of the budget and its social structure

The project mobilizes 550,590 million CUP (a 6% increase from the previous year, but still a low figure) and, according to the minister, about 70% of current expenditures are allocated to public and free services (health, education, culture, sports, assistance, and social security).

• Public health: 76,756 million CUP (187,667 USD). Incluye planificación de 110,700,000 consultas en atención primaria, ingresos hospitalarios nacionales y locales, y prioridad a medicamentos/reactivos y servicios oncológicos, además de mantenimiento y reparaciones.
• Education: 71,983 million CUP (176 thousand USD). Covers universal and free access; total enrollment expected of 1,369,000 students at various levels; and in higher education, 204,299 students in universities, centers, and branches.
• Social Security: 80,526 million CUP (196 thousand USD), for benefits for 1,840,000 pensioners, the continuation of partial pension increases, and other measures described by the minister.
• Social assistance: 5.981 billion CUP (14.6 thousand USD), focusing on the protection of vulnerable groups and the aging population.
• Culture: 12,530 million CUP (30.6 thousand USD), for institutions and programs; includes the operation of 37 art schools and the University of the Arts, with an enrollment of nearly 10,000 students.
• Sports: 8.274 million CUP (20.2 thousand USD), focusing on facility maintenance, sports schools, and community practice, among other objectives.

The document also reports transfers to the business sector amounting to 96,590 million CUP, which is significantly higher than what is allocated to Health.

Of that amount, 54,033 million is allocated for price and rate subsidies; within this, 42,120 million is designated to support electricity rates, in addition to 2,120 million for subsidizing controlled medications.

Additionally, financing of 57,993 million CUP is noted for infrastructure projects (energy, water, health, education, tourism, housing), and 8,600 million CUP is allocated as working capital for funds related to production, according to the text itself.

Projected revenues and fiscal deficit

By 2026, gross revenues of 484,121 million CUP are planned (a 1% GDP growth is mentioned compared to 2025), and a deficit of 74,500 million CUP is projected, “at a similar level” to that estimated for the end of 2025, concentrated on capital operations.

Nonetheless, the projected budget outcome indicates a deficit of 74.5 billion CUP (182 thousand USD at 409), similar to the estimate for the end of 2025, and focused on capital operations related to investments.

Regueiro spoke about strengthening fiscal control, debt recovery, and combating tax evasion.

In the stipulated provisions, it was mentioned: to update the rate of the territorial tax, to double the amounts of the taxable brackets; to quintuple the amounts of the transportation tax; and other adjustments to enhance tax management, including the mandatory use of the NIT as a unique identifier.

In the local budgeting system, a consolidated surplus of 9,444 million CUP is projected, concentrated in five provinces (Artemisa, Havana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and Villa Clara), while 11 other provinces are expected to continue facing deficits, although with improvements compared to their previous balances.

How far does it go?

On social media, Cuban internet users pointed out that while the amount may seem reasonable in Cuban pesos, it is minuscule when converted to dollars. Amid the rising dollarization of the economy, the figures are concerning.

"It seems like a lot, but if we convert it to the official exchange rate in USD of 410 pesos to Salud (76 million pesos), only 185 thousand dollars would be allocated; that is a ridiculous amount to sustain a system in crisis. The same goes for education. The question is, where is what they didn't allocate there?" a person wrote.

Others referred to the structural crisis of the Cuban system, where public services see no improvement: "21% for health, and the other day I had to look for a thermometer because there wasn't even one at the hospital, I even had to buy the ampoules to bring down the fever. Not to mention that recently a 12-year-old boy ended up in a vegetative state due to multiple seizures from high fever. Cubans only go to the hospital to die."