This Sunday, December 28, 2025, marks the last weekend of the year, and the political landscape in Latin America remains unchanged: Nicolás Maduro continues to hold power in Venezuela, and the regime of Raúl Castro and Miguel Díaz-Canel remains intact in Cuba. As the calendar nears its end, one of the most frequently repeated narratives among sectors of the Cuban and Venezuelan exile communities also fades: the promise that Maduro would fall before Christmas or the new year, along with the Castro regime on the Island.
Throughout much of 2025, this idea was echoed in interviews, live broadcasts, social media, and political spaces in the United States. There was talk of military intervention, imminent operations, and “countdown days” for chavismo. Some congress members and commentators claimed that the outcome was just around the corner. Exiled influencers raised their rhetoric, promising their audiences that this time it would indeed be different, that “Christmas would be different” for Venezuela… and also for Cuba.
Today, as the year comes to an end, the reality is different.
Maduro endures, the Cuban regime remains intact
Far from falling, Maduro ended the year clinging to power, supported by the military apparatus, institutional control, and the strategic backing of allies such as Russia, Iran, and China. He even went so far as to kick off Christmas celebrations, send messages of apparent normalcy, and present himself as a leader who challenged—and survived—the pressure from the United States.
In Cuba, Miguel Díaz-Canel remains the visible face of power, while Raúl Castro and the military-business elite maintain the real control of the country. There were no visible political cracks, no significant concessions, and no signs of political or social openness. The economic crisis, hunger, blackouts, and repression continue to impact the Cuban people, but the regime remains fortified and unpunished for its immediate actions.
For thousands of Cubans and Venezuelans—both within and outside their countries—this closure in 2025 is not just a date on the calendar: it is another missed opportunity, another emotional blow after months of inflated expectations.
The harm of selling dates and creating false hope
The criticism is not aimed at hope—which is legitimate and necessary—but at those who manipulate it. Promising freedoms with a specific deadline, without any real foundation, ultimately proves to be deeply irresponsible. Each "it's coming soon," each "before Christmas," each "now for sure" that does not come to fruition only leads to more exhaustion, more cynicism, and more distrust.
The Venezuelan people have been living in a state of permanent waiting for years. The Cuban, used to decades of unfulfilled promises, once again felt hopeful upon hearing that the end of chavismo would drag down castroism. Today, both peoples close the year with fewer certainties than the headlines they heard.
Meanwhile, regimes take advantage of these narratives to bolster their propaganda: they speak of external threats, fictional invasions, and powerful enemies. In doing so, they justify more repression, more control, and more forced silence.
Trump, Venezuela, and Geopolitical Calculation
Donald Trump returned to the presidency with a harsh speech against Maduro and Castroism, and he fulfilled part of his promises: sanctions, diplomatic pressure, military deployment in the Caribbean, and a direct rhetoric that contrasted with the passivity of previous governments. However, Trump did not set official dates, nor did he publicly promise a fall by Christmas, although many spoke on his behalf.
Reality suggests that the issue of Venezuela has been used by the White House as a strategic pawn, not as an immediate campaign. Trump has prioritized other fronts—especially Ukraine and his standoff with Russia—and all indications point to Caracas being part of a larger negotiation, rather than an impulsive action.
It is also evident that the Venezuelan conflict has been used to divert attention from internal tensions in the United States, project strength, and reinforce international leadership. None of this is illegitimate politically, but it does dismantle the narrative of a quick liberation sold by third parties.
2026: hope, but without illusions
As 2025 comes to a close, the conclusion is clear: neither Venezuela nor Cuba has achieved political freedom, but they are not eternally condemned either. The regimes remain intact, yes, but so does social discontent, economic collapse, and internal weariness. Change will come, but not through grandiose announcements or promises made on a timeline.
Perhaps 2026 will bring different scenarios, unexpected negotiations, or internal rifts. Or perhaps not. What must change is the way we speak to the suffering populations. Hope can no longer be used as a tool for audience engagement, votes, or digital prominence.
This article does not renounce the cause of a free Venezuela or that of a Cuba without dictatorship. On the contrary, it defends them from a position of realism, from a respect for the suffering of those who resist within their countries, and from the conviction that freedom will come when there are real conditions, not when someone promises it in front of a camera.
The last Sunday of 2025 does not bring freedom, but rather a lesson: no more miraculous dates, no more false promises. May 2026 be the year of truth, not of smoke.
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Opinion article: Las declaraciones y opiniones expresadas en este artículo son de exclusiva responsabilidad de su autor y no representan necesariamente el punto de vista de CiberCuba.
