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The decline in crude oil shipments from Venezuela to Cuba, amid increasing pressure from the United States on the so-called "ghost fleet" from Venezuela, raises a critical question for Havana: who can fill the fuel deficit left by Caracas?
Experts consulted by EFE warn that if Venezuelan deliveries decrease further, the impact on the island would be “disastrous”, in a context of prolonged blackouts, economic crisis, and lack of foreign currency to purchase oil on the market.
According to the report, energy dependence was established with the Comprehensive Cooperation Agreement between Cuba and Venezuela (2000), when Caracas began to pay for Cuban professional services —primarily doctors and teachers, as well as security and defense experts—with oil.
Although there are no official public data on the volumes, specialists cited, including Arturo López-Levy, agree that shipments have decreased in the last decade due to the decline in Venezuelan production and U.S. sanctions.
This year, Venezuela —which once contributed 100,000 barrels per day— reportedly sent an average of 27,000 barrels per day, according to the specialized service of Reuters cited by EFE.
The problem is larger because, according to independent estimates cited, Cuba needed between 110,000 and 120,000 barrels per day this year.
Of these, around 40,000 come from national production, and the rest must be imported.
This gap translates into daily reality: blackouts of up to 20 hours, halted industries, and long lines for fuel.
Is there a real substitute? Russia seems to be the alternative, but with limitations
For the Cuban economist Ricardo Torres, Russia is “the only country that could be a viable alternative to Venezuela”, although he believes that Moscow would not be in a position to take on that role due to the war in Ukraine, its economic issues, and the pressure on its own oil logistics.
The text adds a reference from expert Jorge Piñón (Energy Institute at the University of Texas), who reported that Russia would have sent about 6,000 barrels daily in 2025 and that a Russian oil tanker with 330,000 barrels arrived on the island.
Mexico is the other mentioned actor, but its contribution would have dropped significantly: last year it sent around 23,000 barrels daily, and this year only 2,500, according to data from Pemex cited by EFE.
Torres attributes part of the limit to the Mexican necessity to “maintain the relationship” with the United States, which is the destination for 85% of its exports.
In parallel, economist and political scientist Arturo López-Levy believes that President Claudia Sheinbaum might be willing to make "political sacrifices" for Cuba, but he warns that Mexico is nearing the limits of what it can do.
China: the name that emerges, but as a financier
In the scenario described by López-Levy, the central question is not just who supplies, but who finances: “who would finance purchases in other markets, and who would dare to sell and transport the fuel” under “American harassment.”
There, China emerges as a potentially "key" player, not necessarily due to direct shipments, but because of the possibility of providing credit to Cuba or suppliers (in dollars or yuan), a decision that the expert defines as geopolitical.
López-Levy urges “not to underestimate” the Cuban regime's capacity for resilience even under extreme conditions, but he distinguishes between temporarily enduring and solving the structural crisis, which —in his opinion— has no “prospect of resolution.”
In summary, according to specialists, there is no clear substitute for Venezuela.
Russia appears as the alternative with the most potential but is limited; Mexico has drastically reduced its shipments; and China could play, above all, the role of financier if it decides to bear the geopolitical cost of supporting new fuel purchases for Cuba.
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