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More than 60% of Venezuelans living in exile believe that a military intervention by the United States is the most effective way to restore democracy in their country, according to a survey published by AtlasIntel and cited by the newspaper The Wall Street Journal.
The study reveals a notable contrast with the opinion of Venezuelans who remain in the country, of whom only 34% support foreign military action to end the regime of Nicolás Maduro.
According to the report, around 64% of Venezuelan migrants support a Washington-led intervention to overthrow Maduro, compared to 25% of the citizens still living in Venezuela who consider that option viable.
The difference reflects, according to analysts, the hopelessness and frustration accumulated among the eight million Venezuelans who have fled the country in recent years.
“It is my greatest hope,” stated Yamileth Chávez, a former merchant from the Zulia state who now works as an Uber driver in Lima, Peru. “The regime will not leave by pretending to be friendly,” she expressed.
The president Donald Trump and the Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, have publicly denied that the U.S. military deployment in the Caribbean is aimed at regime change in Caracas.
However, high-ranking officials in the administration acknowledge that this would be the expected outcome. Trump recently reiterated that "Maduro's days are numbered."
Meanwhile, the Venezuelan communities in exile —especially those based in Miami and other cities in South Florida— have intensified their political pressure, seeking for Washington to adopt firmer measures against the Chavista regime.
Within Venezuela, the situation is different. Many citizens, overwhelmed by inflation and shortages, fear that a military conflict may worsen the humanitarian crisis.
"It would be catastrophic," warned Freddy Márquez, a lawyer in Caracas, who fears that oil sanctions and a potential blockade will further impact the local economy.
Experts like Michael Shifter from Inter-American Dialogue, point out that “the diaspora is more willing to take risks and hope for the best than those living in Venezuela who have more at stake.”
The opposition activist María Corina Machado, the leading political figure in the country, is spearheading diplomatic efforts and coordinating with exiled communities that aim to devise an international pressure strategy against Maduro.
Many of these groups maintain direct contact with conservative lawmakers in South Florida and officials from the U.S. Treasury.
The AtlasIntel survey also indicates that 55% of Venezuelans abroad believe that military intervention would be the fastest way to restore democracy, although analysts consider direct armed action by the United States unlikely.
In Latin America, where nearly seven million Venezuelan migrants reside, the feeling of exhaustion is evident. Many exiles survive with informal jobs and face discrimination in countries such as Chile, Colombia, or Peru.
“We would return and give what remains of our lives to rebuild the country,” said César Pastrán, a former university professor in Caracas who now works at a call center in Santiago de Chile.
Maduro, for his part, has downplayed the U.S. threats and claims that only a direct invasion could oust him, something Washington is not currently considering.
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