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The electricity generation deficit in Cuba remains close to 2,000 megawatts (MW) and has seen an increase compared to previous days, amid an increasingly complex scenario marked by internal crisis and regional uncertainty, especially due to the situation currently unfolding in Venezuela, the main energy ally of the Havana regime.
According to the official forecast from the Unión Eléctrica (UNE) for the peak hours on January 6, 2026, a generation capacity of 1,533 MW is expected against an estimated peak demand of 3,300 MW, resulting in a shortfall of 1,767 MW and a real impact of up to 1,797 MW during the highest consumption period.
According to the report, for the nighttime peak, a partial entry or recovery of several units is expected, including: unit 1 of the Santa Cruz Thermal Power Plant, with 65 MW; unit 5 of the Nuevitas Thermal Power Plant; unit 1 of the Felton Thermal Power Plant, with 125 MW (still in the startup process); and 48 MW from the Regla Patana engines.
However, these additions are insufficient to meet national demand.
Sustained disruptions and deterioration of service
The Informative Note on the State of the National Electric System (SEN) details that the service was disrupted the previous day starting at 5:16 AM and was not restored throughout the night.
The highest impact was recorded at 6:20 PM, with 1,863 MW, exceeding the planned figures due to the unexpected shutdown of unit 5 at the Nuevitas CTE and higher-than-expected demand.
At 6:30 AM this Tuesday, the availability of the National Electric System (SEN) was only 1,240 MW, against a demand of 2,192 MW, which already resulted in a shortfall of 965 MW, with a forecast of 1,100 MW during midday hours.
Breakdowns, maintenance, and lack of fuel
The UNE report confirms that the main causes of the deficit continue to be multiple breakdowns in the thermoelectric plants, extended maintenance periods, and the lack of fuel, a structural issue that shows no signs of a short-term solution.
Among the breakdowns are:
CTE Mariel (unit 5)
CTE Nuevitas (Unit 5)
CTE Santa Cruz (unit 1)
CTE Felton (units 1 and 2)
In maintenance are:
CTE Santa Cruz (unit 2)
CTE Carlos Manuel de Céspedes, in Cienfuegos (unit 4)
This is in addition to 441 MW offline due to limitations in thermal generation and 1,159 MW affected by fuel issues, including: 97 distributed generation plants (860 MW), 48 MW in the Patana de Regla, 106 MW at the Moa Fuel Plant, and 145 MW unavailable due to a lack of lubricant.
An increasingly gloomy outlook
Although the government highlights the contribution of the 34 photovoltaic solar parks, which generated 2,884 MWh with a peak of 560 MW, this figure remains insufficient to compensate for the collapse of the thermal system and the fuel shortage.
With blackouts lasting longer, a sustained deficit, and an increasing external vulnerability, the energy outlook in Cuba looks increasingly bleak, with no structural solutions being offered by the authorities that would allow for a real improvement in electrical service in the short term.
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