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Although the U.S. blockade on oil from Venezuela has not yet had a visible impact on the island, a country already mired in hardship, several economists warn that Cuba could enter a critical phase if it fails to replace the crude supply from its South American ally.
The Cuban economist Miguel Alejandro Hayes estimated in a study cited by the agency EFE that a 30 percent reduction in fuel availability could result in a 27 percent drop in gross domestic product, a 60 percent increase in food prices, and a 75 percent rise in transportation costs, in addition to a 30 percent decrease in household consumption.
According to the specialist, that scenario would equate to "a true economic and humanitarian catastrophe, worse than the Special Period." For now, the official indicators do not reflect an immediate deterioration.
Power outages remain at levels similar to those of late 2025 and gas stations operate under the same usual limitations, characterized by endless queues, intermittent closures, and a preference for payments in dollars.
Data from the state-owned Unión Eléctrica indicate that the maximum deficit rate has fluctuated between 52 and 60 percent since January 3, without a clear trend.
The recent peaks of 60 and 57 percent are attributed to technical failures in the thermoelectric plants, rather than a cut in the supply of imported crude oil.
However, experts agree that the effects of the blockade will inevitably manifest.
According to EFE, Venezuela supplied about 30 percent of the oil used on the island, approximately 27,000 barrels daily, a figure that is impossible to replace in the short term.
Russia and Mexico have maintained reduced shipments, but they are insufficient to cover the deficit.
The energy shortfall could seriously impact the agricultural, industrial, and transportation sectors, which are already operating at the limit due to a lack of foreign currency and the deterioration of infrastructure.
"Cuba has no strategic reserves or financial capacity to sustain itself without Venezuelan oil. It is only a matter of weeks before the crisis worsens," Hayes warned.
Meanwhile, the regime tries to maintain an appearance of stability.
The CubaPetróleo and Ticket applications have not reported significant changes in fuel distribution, although users in Havana claim that the wait times to refuel exceed two months.
Consulted economists agree that if Washington's blockade continues and Caracas does not resume its shipments, the Cuban economy will suffer a widespread collapse, leading to increased hunger, inflation, and power outages.
"The island was already on the brink of the abyss, but without Venezuelan oil, it will fall into it," Hayes concluded.
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