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The authorities in the Cayman Islands are watching Cuba with concern. The fear is not abstract or distant; it is rooted in a potential exodus of Cubans driven to the sea by a crisis that could worsen in a matter of weeks.
This was expressed by the Deputy Governor Franz Manderson, who warned that the British Overseas Territory is preparing for the eventual arrival of thousands of migrants from the island.
During a appearance before the Public Accounts Committee, Manderson presented a scenario that strongly resonates among Cubans, both on the island and abroad: the cut in Venezuelan oil supply could further cripple the already fragile Cuban economy and trigger a massive migration.
"What will happen if Cuba stops receiving oil and people start to suffer? Will there be a massive migration?" asked the official, as reported by the Jamaica Observer.
Following the capture of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces and Washington's control over Venezuelan oil operations, Havana risks becoming isolated from its main fuel supplier.
For a country battered by constant blackouts, food shortages, and a prolonged economic crisis, the impact could be devastating and, once again, push thousands of people to take to the sea.
Manderson was even more straightforward in describing the challenge his country would face: “How are we going to manage, God forbid, if a few thousand Cubans arrive here in a short period of time?”
The deputy governor confirmed that a specialized team from the Ministry of the Interior is already working on identifying and mitigating this risk, which has been classified as a serious external threat within the new risk management framework of the Government, according to Cayman Marl Road.
For many Cubans, the Cayman Islands is not an unfamiliar destination. Historically, it has been a stop along desperate migratory routes, especially during times of economic collapse or political tension.
Manderson himself recalled his experience as an immigration officer during the 1994 crisis, when over 1,100 Cubans arrived in the archipelago, a situation he described as “extremely costly” and politically complex for local authorities.
The statements from the lieutenant governor add to the warnings issued days earlier by Governor Jane Owen, who confirmed that the National Security Council and several security agencies are designing contingency plans in response to a potential increase in irregular migration from Cuba.
The governor acknowledged that the region remains vulnerable and that a humanitarian crisis could develop "within days" if conditions on the island worsen.
The Police Commissioner, Kurt Walton, assured that the Coast Guard and Customs and Border Control of the Cayman Islands are working together and sharing information with regional partners to anticipate scenarios and avoid improvisation in the face of a massive arrival of boaters.
While official offices refine plans and protocols, uncertainty grows in Cuba. For thousands of families, the prospect of a new energy collapse is not merely a geopolitical fact, but a direct threat to their survival. And, as has happened so many times in the recent history of the island, when life becomes unsustainable, the sea re-emerges as the last and most perilous escape.
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