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On January 20, 2025, Donald Trump returned to the White House with an agenda that promised to shake up domestic politics and the international scene. Twelve months later, his administration has left a profound mark on issues that directly affect millions of Cubans inside and outside the island, such as immigration policies, the tightening of sanctions, and an unprecedented geopolitical shift in Latin America that has Cuba at the eye of the storm.
Since the beginning of his term, Trump promoted a hardline approach against irregular migration, eliminating programs such as the humanitarian parole that benefited over half a million migrants—including Cubans—and establishing a “zero tolerance” policy for unauthorized arrivals in the United States.
Another one of the most significant blows was the reinstatement and expansion of the travel ban, which once again placed Cuba on the list of countries facing severe travel restrictions to the United States.
The measure not only affected new visa applicants but also deepened the uncertainty for those awaiting family reunification or a legal pathway to leave the island.
This policy was joined by a more aggressive strategy by the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), featuring targeted raids, express detentions, and a renewed emphasis on deporting migrants with final deportation orders or those accused of crimes, including Cubans who had been rebuilding their lives in the United States for years.
The message was clear: it was no longer enough to "go unnoticed." For many, fear returned to communities where a sense of stability had previously prevailed, even among those with ongoing migration processes.
The consequences are evident, with thousands of Cuban families redirecting their migration routes towards Latin American countries or Europe, while asylum and protection applications remain in limbo under new rules that virtually suspend all migration from so-called "Third World" countries.
Sanctions that impact the economy and hopes for change
Trump has not only focused on tightening the border. In economic terms, he activated a tariff policy as a tool for pressure and revenue. The new tariffs, designed to target adversarial governments and reduce the influence of China and other actors, have increased supply chain costs, limited trade flows, and further constrained the maneuvering space of already weakened economies.
In the Cuban case, its administration has reinstated economic sanctions and restrictions that directly affect the Cuban government's ability to operate and access essential resources. The message has been clear: without political changes in Havana, economic isolation will continue and deepen.
One of his first actions was to reverse Cuba's removal from the list of state sponsors of terrorism, after the Joe Biden administration had taken it off just six days earlier. This decision further tightened the financial and diplomatic blockade on the island and closed key avenues for banking operations, trade, and economic relief amid the crisis.
Additionally, following the capture of the Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro in a U.S. military operation, an event that shook the entire region and resulted in the deaths of over thirty Cubans in combat, the political offensive has intensified.
Trump has warned Cuba that "they should make a deal before it’s too late", suggesting to end the flow of oil and financial support that has sustained the island for decades.
The response from Havana has been one of outright rejection. Cuban authorities have indicated that any dialogue must be based on mutual respect and without interference in internal affairs, and they have dismissed the possibility of any formal negotiations following the threats from the U.S. president.
Migration, families, and a future in tension
For the Cuban community in the United States, Trump's policies have generated mixed feelings. On one hand, many applaud the toughness with which Washington pressures the regime on the island. On the other, parents, children, and transnational couples see legal migration pathways closing or becoming nearly unreachable, forcing them to make painful decisions or embark on dangerous journeys to reunite with their loved ones.
The human impact is undeniable: thousands of shattered dreams, indefinite waits in Mexico or Central America, and a growing sense of urgency with every announcement from Washington.
While Trump presents himself to his audience in Florida and other strongholds as a president who has fulfilled his promises of security and national strength, ordinary Cubans feel the reality of increasingly sealed borders and policies that seem to be designed without considering their history of forced mobility and family separation.
Change or regional collapse?
The past year has also tested the United States' foreign policy in Latin America. The fall of Maduro and the new balance of power have reconfigured old alliances and left Cuba without its main energy support.
Analysts and voices from both the island and exile agree that the combination of sanctions, political pressure, and isolation could drive Cuba toward a regime change, an economic collapse, or an unprecedented wave of migration.
For Cubans—both inside and outside the country—the first year of Trump has been one of uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and political decisions that are felt at every border and in every separated family.
The path to the second year promises to be just as turbulent, as Washington and Havana maintain their firm stances in a relationship that remains far from a peaceful or consensual solution.
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