The Cuban regime has acknowledged that it is willing to resume dialogue with the United States, but it has outlined red lines that confirm its intention to keep the core of its political power intact.
The Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Carlos Fernández de Cossío, stated to the agency Associated Press that Cuba “currently does not have a dialogue table with Washington,” although it would be “open to one” if certain conditions are met.
However, he warned that certain issues "are not on the table," including the Constitution, the economy, and the socialist system of government.
"We are open to dialogue. If we can have a dialogue, perhaps that could lead to a negotiation," said Fernández de Cossío, who emphasized that Cuba seeks a "respectful and serious coexistence" with the United States. However, he insisted that the country's political model will not be up for discussion.
The statements come just days after U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed that his administration is in contact with the highest figures in Cuba, following the announcement of tariffs against any country that supplies oil to the island.
"Cuba is a failed state", Trump has been repeating in recent days, claiming that his administration seeks an agreement that benefits both exiled Cubans and those who remain on the island.
The White House is exerting economic and diplomatic pressure on Havana, in the context of the national emergency declared due to considering the regime an "unusual and extraordinary threat" to the security of the United States.
The message from Fernández de Cossío complements the recent statement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MINREX), which on February 1st asserted that Cuba “does not represent a threat to the security of the United States” and proposed to “reactivate bilateral cooperation” in areas such as the fight against terrorism, drug trafficking, money laundering, and cybersecurity.
Analysts interpret the combination of both messages—the technical tone of the MINREX and the political caution of the deputy foreign minister—as part of a strategy of controlled détente.
La Habana seeks to project an image of a "responsible and cooperative state," while attempting to relieve the pressures arising from the energy blockade and financial sanctions against GAESA, the military conglomerate under the control of Raúl Castro and his "famiglia".
While the language has changed, the essence remains the same: the regime of Miguel Díaz-Canel rejects any dialogue that involves structural reforms or challenges to the authority of the Communist Party.
Why doesn't Cuba want to talk about its system, and what will Washington respond?
The regime's refusal (through Fernández de Cossío) to discuss the Constitution, the economy, or the socialist system of government is not a tactic; it reflects the necessity to protect the legal framework of power in Cuba.
The 2019 Constitution establishes the irrevocability of socialism (article 4), enshrines the Communist Party as the “leading force of society and the State” (article 5), and prohibits any modification of this order in the future (article 229).
Opening that debate would amount to questioning the essence of the regime, which is sustained by political monopoly, economic control, and the hegemonic role of the military and the "law enforcement forces" (MINFAR+MININT).
Furthermore, the socialist economic model—managed through the military conglomerate GAESA—ensures that the power elite maintains absolute control over the main sources of income: tourism, foreign trade, foreign currency, and banking.
By maintaining this model, the regime protects its financial interests under the guise of a supposed "economic sovereignty."
However, that stance clashes directly with the Donroe Doctrine, the new hemispheric strategy of Washington promoted by Trump and designed by Marco Rubio.
This doctrine seeks to reconfigure the Western Hemisphere through the democratic transition of authoritarian regimes allied with Russia, China, and Iran.
After the capture of Nicolás Maduro and the commencement of the stabilization and reconciliation process in Venezuela, the White House has made it clear that it will not accept dialogues that exclude fundamental political reforms and a transition to democracy.
In that context, the Cuban offer of a "technical dialogue without addressing the system" is seen in Washington as a defensive gesture, rather than a genuine opening.
Everything indicates that the United States will maintain controlled channels of communication but will intensify diplomatic, economic, and financial pressure until Havana agrees to discuss a real transition towards a plural and democratic system.
The message is unequivocal: There will be no stability without a change of system.
Filed under: