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Cuban economist Pedro Monreal warned this Friday that there is “evidence of advanced local implementation” of government directives to address a “severe fuel shortage,” measures which —as he noted— were said to be explained publicly “within a week.”
For Monreal, from his page "The State as such," what has been observed "seems like a 'zero option'", although "not yet reaching such an extreme."
In his analysis, Monreal recalled that the so-called "zero option" emerged in 1990 as both a scenario and a contingency plan, in light of the possibility of a "zero (or nearly zero)" availability of hydrocarbons following the disconnection between Cuba and the then USSR.
He noted that this extreme scenario did not materialize in the 1990s, but there was indeed a profound economic, social, and political crisis, accompanied by economic transformations and a way out of the recession that—according to his analysis—did not resolve structural problems and created new ones.
Monreal highlighted the differences between the oil shock of that time and the current one.
In his opinion, the situation in the 90s was a predictable impact resulting from the end of favorable conditions of Soviet supply and the lack of currency in Cuba; in contrast, the current "shock" would be abrupt and a result of a "harsh global imposition" by the United States.
Although he stated that the actual scope of the new directives is not clear, he affirmed that the measures announced in “various locations” over the last 24 hours “seem to repeat” the initial pattern of the Special Period, focused on energy and fuel conservation.
As a background, he recalled that in 1990 three groups of measures were adopted: preliminary limited actions in May and two broad rounds in August and September.
According to their report, the first round prioritized electricity savings (residential and non-residential), fuel savings among major industrial consumers and agricultural activities, and the containment of fuel consumption for transportation.
The second round, adopted a few days later, expanded the scope of fuel savings and extended the adaptation towards alternatives in transportation, employment, and consumption rationing.
Monreal emphasized a key concern: he stated that it is unclear whether the Government incorporated one of the "great lessons" from the 1990s, in his view: that agricultural management should have, from the outset, the same priority as fuel saving.
He warned that it would be a “monumental mistake” to design that management with a survival economy approach—such as survival urban agriculture and municipal self-sufficiency—and stated that agricultural management in the 90s was “relatively successful” because it relied on the market and land deregulation.
The energy crisis in Cuba, amid a lack of oil supply since December 2025 due to the U.S. naval blockade of Venezuela, has led to a drastic change on the island. It has caused a fuel deficit that affects electricity generation, transportation, and other essential services.
The Cuban government has implemented directives to address the fuel shortages, inspired by the measures from the Special Period of the 1990s, which include the prioritization of state consumption, the reduction of energy expenditure, and the redistribution of available fuel.
However, no concrete details have been provided on how they will alleviate the crisis in the short term.
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