The Central Bank of Cuba (BCC) has taken action once again. After several days of remaining almost static around 458 CUP per dollar in segment III, the so-called official “floating rate” jumped to 463 CUP on February 21, alongside the consolidation of the informal dollar at 505 CUP.
The recent chart from BCC itself confirms the pattern: almost flat stability between February 13 and 19, and then suddenly, a vertical adjustment in a matter of hours.
This is not about an organic flotation resulting from transparent supply and demand, but rather an administrative correction following the movement of the real market.
The gap remains significant. With the informal dollar at 505 CUP and the official rate at 463 CUP, the difference is around 42 pesos.
In the case of the euro, the parallel market places it at 560 CUP, while Segment III sets it at 544.67 CUP, showing a slight decrease of 0.42 CUP compared to the previous day. Although the gap is smaller than that of the dollar, it still reflects two exchange rate references that do not converge.
The historical analysis of the Table of Segment III shows a clear dynamic: long periods of stability followed by more pronounced, specific adjustments. No gradual trajectory or truly floating behavior is observed, but rather steps.
Every time the informal market breaches a threshold —500 CUP in the recent case— the monetary authority reacts days later by partially adjusting the official rate.
This reactive logic has several implications. First, it sends contradictory signals: the government insists that the official rate aims to regulate the market, but in practice, it ends up following it.
Secondly, it fails to close the gap, which perpetuates incentives to turn to the informal circuit, where liquidity and availability are greater.
Furthermore, late correction erodes credibility. If segment III were truly guided by market conditions, the movements would be more frequent and less abrupt.
On the contrary, the data suggest discretionary decisions aimed at shortening distances without explicitly acknowledging the leadership of the parallel market.
While the informal dollar reaches historic highs and the euro remains at its highest level of the year, the BCC seems caught between the need to not fully validate the real market price and the impossibility of ignoring it.
The result is a "floating" rate that fluctuates slowly and inconsistently, confirming that the effective reference remains outside the official system.
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