The discreet conversations between the administration of Donald Trump and representatives of the real power in Cuba are progressing amid a possibility that not long ago seemed unthinkable: thedeparture of Miguel Díaz-Canel as the main figure of the communist regime.
According to a report by the Miami Herald, the U.S. government believes that the Cuban leader could become an obstacle to the economic and political changes that Washington is looking to promote as part of a broader negotiation with Havana.
According to a source cited by the newspaper, that assessment has already been communicated to the Cuban side during discussions taking place through unofficial channels.
Díaz-Canel, appointed by Raúl Castro first as president in 2018 and then as first secretary of the Communist Party in 2021, has been left out of the discussions held between advisors of Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, the grandson and close collaborator of Raúl Castro, known as El Cangrejo.
The most recent meeting took place last week in Saint Kitts, alongside the annual CARICOM summit.
Rodríguez Castro is not a minor actor. In addition to being part of the inner circle of the retired general, he is linked to the management of GAESA, the military conglomerate that controls around 70% of the dollarized Cuban economy, including strategic ports like Mariel, hotel chains, and gas stations.
His prominence in these contacts reinforces the perception that real power in Cuba remains concentrated in the Castro family and the Armed Forces.
The Trump administration has intensified pressure on the regime. Following the capture of the Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro in a U.S. military operation in early January, Washington cut off key oil supplies to the Island.
President Trump has repeatedly described Cuba as a “failed state” and has emphasized the need for an agreement to prevent total collapse.
Rubio has noted that the United States does not expect immediate transformations, but rather "dramatic changes" in the centralized economic model.
Sources cited by the Herald indicated that the possibility of a gradual easing of sanctions in exchange for structural reforms has been discussed.
In that context, Díaz-Canel would be seen as too ideological and, at the same time, lacking the real power necessary to ensure the implementation of any agreement.
His potential dismissal would test how far the ruling elite is willing to concede to avoid more drastic scenarios, including increased international pressure or even military actions.
However, the movement would not be easy. Díaz-Canel not only holds the presidency but also leads the Communist Party, the symbolic pillar of the system. Analysts consulted by the Herald warn that removing him would imply a deep change that would require mutual guarantees in a comprehensive negotiation.
For many Cubans, however, his departure would not come as a surprise. The leader has been facing significant unpopularity, especially since the protests of July 11, 2021, when he publicly urged supporters of the regime to confront the demonstrators "by any means necessary."
Hundreds of those arrested that day remain in prison and are part of the estimated thousand political prisoners in the country.
During his term, Cuba has experienced the largest exodus in its history, with nearly three million people leaving the Island since 2020. The economic crisis, chronic shortages, and prolonged blackouts have further eroded the credibility of the government of the so-called "continuity."
Although Díaz-Canel has repeatedly emphasized the need for "urgent transformations" of the economic model, independent economists believe that the announced measures, such as greater autonomy for state-owned enterprises or local governments, are insufficient.
Experts point out that sacrificing Díaz-Canel could serve as a political gesture towards Washington, but it would not necessarily alter the real foundations of power, which remain in the hands of the military elite and the circle around Raúl Castro.
Nevertheless, in authoritarian systems, symbols matter, and a change in leadership would send a strong signal to both the international community and the Cuban population.
As expectations for a regime change grow, there is also the possibility that Díaz-Canel could once again survive internal and external tensions.
Its survival or downfall will ultimately depend on the calculations of the inner circle that controls the country and on how far they are willing to negotiate Cuba's future in an increasingly plausible transition scenario.
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