The Cuban-American businessman Carlos Saladrigas, president of the Cuba Study Group, stated in an interview with CiberCuba that the first phase of an economic transition in Cuba will cost between 6 billion and 10 billion dollars, and that this burden will primarily fall on the Cuban diaspora and the U.S. government through a 'Marshall Plan' for the island.
"Much of that burden will fall on the diaspora, that burden will fall on the U.S. government, and that burden will be a Marshall Plan for Cuba that is in the United States in a position to offer assistance of that magnitude," Saladrigas stated in an interview. Additionally, the European Community and Latin America would contribute to that primary source, albeit to a lesser extent.
Saladrigas, at 77 years old and with more than two decades advocating for economic openness with Cuba, outlined a three-phase plan to rebuild the Cuban economy. The first phase, focused on stabilization, would last between 2 and 4 years. The second phase, centered on infrastructure—ports, roads, airports, clean water—would require an additional 5 years. The third phase is a 'strategic vision' phase in which Cuba could become a financial center of the Caribbean comparable to Singapore or Israel.
The business leader was emphatic about an essential prerequisite: the lifting of U.S. sanctions. "There cannot be economic openness with economic sanctions. It is impossible, impossible for the Cuban economy to recover under those sanctions," he stated. Saladrigas also warned that the state of the economy at the time of the transition will determine the outcomes: "the worse the economic situation of the country at the moment of the transition, the worse the results will be after the transition."
The backdrop is an unprecedented economic crisis in decades. the Cuban GDP fell by 5% in 2025, the GDP per capita stands at just 1,082 dollars —the lowest in Latin America according to CEPAL—, and the Cuban peso depreciated by 47.8% against the dollar in the past year, moving from 345 to 510 CUP per dollar. The loss of Venezuelan oil, which accounted for 30% of Cuban consumption after the capture of Maduro, further aggravated the energy situation. "Cuba has no oil. Our money, the money needed for the transition, will not come from underground," Saladrigas stated.
The 96.4% of small and medium-sized enterprises threatened by the fuel crisis illustrates the extent of the productive collapse. It is precisely the small and medium-sized enterprises that are at the center of his proposal for the first phase: Saladrigas believes that their "explosion" will be the driving force behind stabilization, fueled by remittances from the diaspora as seed capital. He proposes that Cubans abroad should be able to invest directly in these companies and that these companies should be allowed to buy and sell freely.
For the currency, consider dollarization as a possible option, albeit with a loss of sovereignty, and suggest a loan from the IMF or from the United States to support the peso. Regarding the expropriated properties from the 60s, propose resolving these through tax credits linked to future investments, not with cash. "Housing is untouchable," he specified.
Saladrigas also warned about the increased risk of a disorderly transition: "if we allow that hemispheric gangsterism to infiltrate this process in Cuba, it corrupts the police, it undermines the entire process," he said, referring to the potential infiltration of drug trafficking and organized crime from Latin America.
His statements come in the context of the negotiations that the Trump administration is conducting with representatives of the Cuban regime. Trump referred to Cuba as "desperate" for an agreement at the 'Shield of the Americas' Summit this past Sunday in Miami, and has appointed Secretary of State Marco Rubio to lead the dialogues, which include contacts with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, grandson of Raúl Castro.
Saladrigas, who has been advocating exactly what Washington is now promoting for decades, described this approach as "pure pragmatism" and "the only viable path," although he lamented that Cubans have no direct agency in the process. The division among the Cuban exile community regarding these negotiations reflects the political complexity of the moment. "I want a Cuba that is extraordinary, that is exceptional, and that becomes a major financial center in the Caribbean within the next 10 to 15 years," he concluded.
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