Marco Rubio, Raúl Castro, and the debate in exile regarding a possible transition scenario in Cuba



Marco RubioPhoto © Flickr/ Creative Commons

The possibility of an agreement between the United States Government and Raúl Castro has begun to generate tensions within the Cuban exile community, just as four congressmen urged President Donald Trump to pursue criminal charges against the Cuban Army General for the downing of the planes belonging to Hermanos al Rescate in 1996.

According to Axios, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has engaged in discreet conversations with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, the grandson of Raúl Castro, in the context of increasing pressure from Washington on Havana.

The conversations, which do not include the leader Miguel Díaz-Canel, aim to explore various scenarios of transition in Cuba. However, an understanding that does not consider criminal accountability for key figures of the regime could lead to rejection among sectors of the exile community.

Congress members request to prosecute Raúl Castro

In a letter dated February 13, 2026, legislators Mario Díaz-Balart, María Elvira Salazar, Carlos A. Giménez, and Nicole Malliotakis requested that Trump ask the Department of Justice to consider formally charging Raúl Castro for his involvement in the attack on February 24, 1996.

That day, Armando Alejandre Jr., Carlos Costa, and Mario de la Peña, American citizens, and Pablo Morales, a permanent resident in the United States, died. The four were involved in humanitarian missions to locate and assist Cuban rafters.

Raúl Castro would have been within the chain of command that ordered the action against the aircraft, which is why Republican lawmakers are calling for him to face the law.

"The bullies who have oppressed, tortured, and killed must face justice, and accountability must begin at the top," declared Díaz-Balart.

The congressmen argue that the Trump administration is in a "unique" position to resolve an injustice that has persisted for nearly three decades, noting that so far, only one person has been convicted in the United States in connection with the case.

The challenge that Marco Rubio faces

The conversations revealed by Axios place Marco Rubio at the center of a potential negotiation process with the circle of real power in Cuba.

So far, the State Department has not provided details about the content of those contacts, nor has the Cuban government acknowledged a formal high-level dialogue.

In this scenario, the eventual direction that U.S. policy towards the island may take could spark a debate within the exile community between those who prioritize judicial accountability and those who consider other possible formulas for political transition.

The lingering question is whether, in the event of a possible agreement, the more hardline sectors of the exile community would fully support the strategy adopted by Washington.

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CiberCuba Editorial Team

A team of journalists committed to reporting on Cuban current affairs and topics of global interest. At CiberCuba, we work to deliver truthful news and critical analysis.