The Cuban economist Mauricio de Miranda Parrondo, a tenured professor at the Pontificia Universidad Javeriana de Cali and a doctor in International Economics from the Universidad Complutense de Madrid, warned this Friday that a real economic change in Cuba is impossible without a prior political change.
In a conversation with CiberCuba, it was claimed that the path the regime is taking points towards a "Russian-style transformation": the capture of the country's resources by an oligarchy connected to those in power.
The interview took place on the same day that the leader Miguel Díaz-Canel publicly confirmed the conversations with the United States, which the government had denied just days earlier, and on which the grandson of Raúl Castro, Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, known as "El Cangrejo," appeared front row at a high-level meeting of the Communist Party and the Council of Ministers without holding any official position.
"Could there be an economic change in Cuba without a political change? In my opinion, no. In my opinion, no," he stated in an interview with CiberCuba.
For the economist, the regime's track record is clear: "The Cuban government has historically relaxed its policies when it is under pressure, only to halt reforms as soon as the pressure eases."
The main danger identified by De Miranda is that Cuba will replicate the Russian model of the nineties, when privatizations benefited oligarchs connected to Soviet power and led to authoritarian capitalism.
"What is the danger of all this? That economic transformations take place the Russian way," he noted, adding that this would be "the best option for them, the worst for the country, the worst for the people."
In this context, De Miranda criticized the Decree-Law 114/2025, which regulates partnerships between state and private enterprises and was published in the Official Gazette on March 3, pointing out that it maintains the discretion of power and opens the door to corruption.
He also warned that GAESA, the military conglomerate that controls key sectors of the economy and generated revenues of 2.1 billion dollars according to leaked documents, is not audited by the General Comptroller of the Republic.
The presence of "El Cangrejo" at the high-level meeting, without any official role, illustrates for De Miranda the extent of the institutional decay of the regime.
"This demonstrates the level of deinstitutionalization that Cuba is experiencing; it shows that there are a number of people in positions of responsibility, but they lack real power."
It is worth remembering that Marco Rubio reportedly negotiated with El Cangrejo a possible transition in Cuba.
Lapse of Díaz-Canel
He also drew attention to a lapse by Díaz-Canel, who spoke of the "self-determination of both governments" instead of "self-determination of the peoples."
"I believe that phrase slipped out from Díaz-Canel during that speech," commented De Miranda, calling it revealing. It is worth noting that Cuba denied negotiations with the US just days before being forced to acknowledge them.
The figures presented by the economist are devastating. The Economist Intelligence Unit projects a contraction of the Cuban GDP of 7.2% in 2026, following a 5% decline in 2025 confirmed by the Center for Cuban Economic Studies.
"The accumulated contraction is 23 percent [since 2019]. It's a staggering figure over seven years," he estimated. Between 1990 and 2024, the Cuban economy grew by only a 1.1% cumulatively. The sugar production for the 2024-2025 harvest was lower than that of 1899.
De Miranda agreed with the Cuban-American businessman Carlos Saladrigas on the need for a Marshall Plan to rebuild the Cuban economy —a proposal he first put forward in 2017-2018—, but emphasized that without real political conditions, no external investment will be viable: guaranteed property rights, capital, labor, and exchange markets, as well as full citizen rights for Cubans abroad, including the right to vote.
"There is no light at the end of the tunnel under the current political conditions. I am stating this clearly," concluded De Miranda.
Filed under: