The United States Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, is holding secret talks with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, the grandson and trusted man of Raúl Castro, in what could be the first structured attempt to negotiate a transition in Cuba outside of the official channels of the government led by Miguel Díaz-Canel.
The revelation, published by Axios and confirmed by sources from the Trump administration, indicates that contacts are being made directly with the inner circle of the historical leader of the regime, bypassing the formal structures of the Communist Party and the Cuban president himself.
“I wouldn’t call this negotiations so much as conversations about the future,” stated a senior U.S. official quoted by the outlet. However, the underlying goal would be clear: to explore scenarios for political change on the island.
Rubio's interlocutor is known as "Raulito" and nicknamed in political circles as "El Cangrejo," due to a deformity on one of his fingers. At 41 years old, he is part of Raúl Castro's inner circle and maintains ties with the military-business conglomerate GAESA, which controls the main economic sectors of the country.
Conversations are taking place in a context of maximum pressure on Havana. Following the capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3 and the dismantling of the Caracas-Havana axis, Washington has intensified energy sanctions against Cuba, even threatening Mexico, one of the last crude oil suppliers to the island.
The president Donald Trump has publicly stated that his administration is "talking to people at the highest levels in Cuba" and that the island "should make a deal." According to Axios, the State Department did not deny the contacts between Rubio and Raúl Castro's grandson, although it declined to make any official comments.
The revelations contrast with the recent statements made by the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Carlos Fernández de Cossío, who told the EFE agency that “there is no high-level dialogue” with the United States and that there have only been “exchanges of messages”. The diplomat also ruled out the existence of intermediaries such as Mexico or the Vatican.
Moreover, Fernández de Cossío made it clear that Cuba is not willing to discuss constitutional reforms, changes to the socialist system, or the release of political prisoners, establishing red lines for any potential negotiation.
However, the information published now suggests that Washington may be pursuing a different strategy: negotiating directly with figures within Raúl Castro's circle, who are seen by the White House as the true decision-makers on the island.
Sources cited by Axios indicate that Rubio and his team see Castro's grandson as a representative of a more pragmatic generation with a business mindset, for whom revolutionary communism has failed.
“They are looking for the next Delcy in Cuba”, said a source referring to the model applied in Venezuela, where the United States promoted a transition without completely dismantling the power structure.
The parallel with Caracas is evident. After Maduro's fall, Washington kept part of the chavista apparatus in operation while promoting a process of stabilization and reconciliation.
In Cuba, the scenario could be similar: a negotiated transition that preserves certain interests of the military elite in exchange for gradual reforms.
However, the situation in Cuba presents greater challenges. Unlike Venezuela, the island lacks an institutionalized political opposition, and its economy is in worse shape.
While the regime insists on denying formal negotiations, the conversations described by Axios point to a more complex reality: a discreet dialogue that could shape the political future of Cuba.
The question is no longer whether contacts exist, but what kind of transition the Castro regime would be willing to accept—and under what conditions.
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