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Cuba has begun to emerge as a less risky strategic front for Washington compared to the conflict with Iran, as the administration of President Donald Trump assesses various foreign policy scenarios.
According to an opinion article published by ABC and written by José M. de Areilza, Trump himself has mentioned a potential “friendly takeover of Cuba”, a strategy that, in his view, could be politically more advantageous and less dangerous than a military escalation in the Middle East.
The president discussed the topic during a meeting held a few days ago at his golf club in Doral, Florida, with representatives from twelve Ibero-American countries.
During that meeting, shared challenges regarding immigration and regional security were discussed.
According to the analysis, the initial moves regarding that strategy may already have been set in motion and could accelerate if Trump decides to declare victory on the Iranian front and seek a ceasefire, provided that the ayatollahs' regime eases tensions in the region.
The article argues that the scheme through which the United States would project its influence over Cuba would follow a script similar to that applied in Venezuela after the fall of Nicolás Maduro's government on January 3.
In that model, the first phase would focus on ensuring internal order and protecting U.S. economic interests before promoting political changes.
In that process, Secretary of State Marco Rubio would be leading discussions with Raúl Castro's circle, still regarded as a key figure within the power structure on the island.
Among the mentioned interlocutors is Raúl Rodríguez Castro, the grandson and bodyguard of the historical Cuban leader known as "El Cangrejo," who would act as a channel to safeguard the family's interests and eventually play a role in a political transition.
Meanwhile, the internal situation in Cuba remains marked by power outages, protests, and the detention of individuals demanding freedom on the streets of Havana, amid an energy crisis exacerbated by the disappearance of Venezuelan oil supplies.
The analysis concludes that, despite Rubio's democratic convictions and his identification with those who seek political changes on the island, the Secretary of State must adhere to the strategic approach set by Trump in managing the Cuban issue.
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