The informal currency market in Cuba starts this Wednesday with a slight correction in the price of the dollar, which drops to 513 CUP, two pesos less than the 515 CUP recorded on Tuesday.
The euro, on the other hand, rises slightly to 576 CUP, an increase of one peso compared to the previous day. The Freely Convertible Currency (MLC), in contrast, experiences an increase and is at 420 CUP, which represents a rise of 20 pesos from the previous 400 CUP.
The decline of the dollar momentarily interrupts the upward trend it had been showing in recent days, although it does not signify a change in trend. The U.S. currency remains at historically high levels within the Cuban informal market.
After several days of stability around 510 CUP, the recent increase to 515 CUP and the subsequent correction suggest a market in a phase of adjustment, where small variations respond more to immediate supply and demand dynamics than to structural changes.
Exchange Rate Evolution
Among the factors influencing this behavior is the energy crisis that the country is experiencing. Prolonged blackouts affect connectivity and limit transactions, reducing market activity and creating a sense of instability.
This is compounded by economic and political uncertainty, which continues to influence the decisions of actors in the informal market, resulting in a reduced willingness to engage in large-volume transactions.
Despite this slight adjustment, the fundamentals remain intact: a shortage of foreign currency, sustained inflation, and a lack of confidence in the Cuban peso. This keeps the demand for strong currencies high, especially the dollar, which continues to be the primary safe haven for value.
The informal market continues to serve as the main reference for the real value of the Cuban peso, significantly surpassing the official exchange rate, which remains disconnected from the country's economic reality.
In this scenario, the slight decline of the dollar should not be interpreted as an improvement, but rather as a temporary adjustment within an underlying trend characterized by the depreciation of the Cuban peso. It will be necessary to observe whether, in the coming days, the upward trend resumes or if the market enters a phase of greater stability.
Filed under: