The Republican senator Ted Cruz published a video on his X account this Monday, in which he claims that there could be changes in government in Iran, Venezuela, and Cuba within the next six months, comparing the potential scenario to the most significant geopolitical change since the fall of the Berlin Wall.
The video, which features his statements on the YouTube page TRIGGERnometry, has garnered over 266,000 views, more than 10,000 likes, and over 1,000 comments within just a few hours, reflecting the impact of statements made during a time of significant pressure on the Trump administration regarding the three regimes.
Cruz was clear in pointing out that his optimism is not naive. "There are a thousand ways this can go wrong. I'm not being Pollyanna and saying that everything is wonderful," warned the senator from Texas. At the same time, he emphasized that the three regimes are "weaker than at any point in our lifetime."
The senator's statements are framed within an unprecedented chain of geopolitical events. On January 3, 2026, U.S. forces captured Nicolás Maduro in Caracas during the so-called "Operation Absolute Resolution," ordered by Trump. Maduro appeared before a federal court in Manhattan on January 5, and on March 9, Washington formally recognized the new Venezuelan government, released frozen assets of PDVSA, and signed a $165 million mining agreement.
In Iran, the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed on February 28 during U.S. military operations. However, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has consolidated control over the state apparatus, and experts from the Stimson Center and Small Wars Journal express skepticism regarding a genuine political transition, citing the repressive power of the IRGC and the weakness of the opposition.
Cuba is the third vertex of this scenario. The island is facing its worst crisis in decades: more than 240 new sanctions imposed by Washington since January, a total energy embargo lasting three months without imported oil, and its seventh major blackout in 18 months, worsened by the loss of subsidized Venezuelan crude. On January 29, Trump signed an executive order declaring Cuba an "unusual threat" to U.S. national security.
The Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been unequivocal about the situation in Cuba. "That no longer exists", he stated in January, referring to the end of Venezuelan and Soviet subsidies that supported the regime for decades, and he described the Cuban leaders as "incompetent individuals who ignore the economy." According to sources cited in the media, Rubio is holding high-level conversations with the circle of Raúl Castro, sidelining Díaz-Canel.
Trump, for his part, has stated "First Iran, then Cuba" and claimed to have a plan to change the Cuban regime ready. On January 11, he called on the regime to "reach an agreement before it's too late."
Cruz, along with Rubio, is one of the most influential figures in the Cuban-American Republican axis that promotes this strategy of simultaneous pressure. If the three governments were to fall and be replaced by administrations willing to be "friends of America," this would represent, according to the senator, "the biggest geopolitical change since the fall of the Berlin Wall".
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