Related videos:
The rising tension in the Caribbean, marked by the pressure from the United States on Cuba and the worsening energy situation on the island, has rekindled old geopolitical specters: could a scenario similar to the Missile Crisis of 1962 repeat itself?
However, for political and military analyst Yakov Kedmi, that idea is more a reflection of Cold War nostalgia than of current reality.
According to the portal RuNews24, the expert believes that the apparent passivity of Moscow towards the Cuban situation is not a sign of weakness, but rather a profound shift in its strategic priorities.
The expectations regarding a possible Russian military deployment in the Caribbean - such as submarines off Florida or bases in Cuba - warn, “they ignore the fundamental change in the balance of power and priorities.”
A strategy characterized by pragmatism
Kedmi acknowledges that Russia possesses technical capabilities to project power in the Western Hemisphere.
In theory, it could replicate schemes similar to those of the Soviet Union during the Cold War.
No obstante, he insists that the key is not in what Moscow can do, but in what it is beneficial for it to do.
"Russia retains the technical capacity to exert military and political pressure on the United States through Cuba or Venezuela," notes the analyst.
But he immediately clarifies that the issue is different: "the key question does not lie in the availability of these capabilities, but in their alignment with the global strategic objectives."
In that regard, he emphasizes that maintaining distant military bases would mean diverting resources from areas deemed a priority for Moscow. In the current international context, he adds, “not every action, even a potential one, benefits the national interests of the country.”
This approach reflects a shift towards a more pragmatic foreign policy, distancing itself from the ideological impulses that defined the Soviet era.
A multipolar world that changes the rules
The analyst also emphasizes that the global landscape has changed radically since 1962.
Today, the influence of powers is not only measured by their military presence in distant territories but by their ability to maneuver on multiple fronts.
In this new context, Kedmi highlights a strategic alignment between Moscow and Beijing.
China, despite its tensions with the United States—especially regarding Taiwan—has also not chosen to establish military bases in Latin America.
For the expert, this shared position reflects a common understanding: opening a direct military front near U.S. territory does not serve the long-term interests of these powers.
In contrast, tools such as economic diplomacy and deterrence in other geopolitical scenarios are prioritized.
"The current dynamic demands flexibility," the analysis summarizes; thus, direct confrontation in the "backyard" of the United States is no longer a viable strategic option.
Cuba: Between External Pressure and Internal Crisis
As these global strategies are being redefined, the situation within Cuba continues to deteriorate.
The island is facing a deep energy crisis, exacerbated by fuel shortages, the ineffectiveness of the Cuban regime, and the impact of U.S. sanctions.
In parallel, Washington maintains an ambivalent stance: it tightens sanctions while trying to secure supplies for its own diplomatic mission in Havana, a gesture that Cuban authorities have labeled as hypocritical.
In this scenario, Russia has chosen to provide more limited and specific support.
Recently, Russian Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev confirmed the shipment of fuel to Cuba under the premise of "humanitarian assistance," according to Reuters, although he did not specify the volumes or conditions.
The gesture occurs at a critical moment: the island has received only two shipments of oil this year, and several anticipated deliveries have been diverted, further exacerbating the crisis.
A strategic decision, not a withdrawal
Far from interpreting Moscow's stance as a resignation, Kedmi defines it as a calculated decision.
In his opinion, applying the logic of the Cold War to the present is a mistake.
"The policies in place 70 years ago cannot be mechanically transferred to the present," warns the analyst, emphasizing that the multipolar world necessitates a redefinition of the ways influence is exerted.
Thus, Russia aims to keep Cuba as a partner, but without turning the relationship into a direct point of confrontation with the United States that could escalate into a larger conflict.
In short, the absence of a Russian military presence on the island is not due to a lack of capacity, but rather a strategic assessment of the new global order.
One in which, as Kedmi suggests, power is no longer measured solely by bases and missiles, but by the ability to avoid conflicts that are inadvisable.
Filed under: