The Republican senator Ted Cruz stated this Sunday that in the next six months there is a greater probability than at any other time in their lives of seeing new governments in Venezuela, Cuba, and Iran, attributing this scenario to the strength of President Donald Trump.
"Today we have more opportunities than at any point in our lives to witness, in the next six months, a new government in Venezuela, in Cuba, and in Iran," Cruz declared in a video posted on X.
These are the key points of what Cruz said and what is currently happening on the island:
Cruz's bet: strength, pressure, and a possible turn in Cuba
Cruz admitted that "there are a thousand ways this could go wrong," but he insisted that it is the result of seeing American strength in action.
Highlighted the capture of Nicolás Maduro by the Delta Force on January 3 as an example of that strength: Every Latin American dictator had to change their underwear.
He rejected the isolationist label for Trump: "Anyone who says that has been in a coma for the last 15 months."
And he concluded: "America is safer, and the world is safer when the president is strong and his enemies fear him."
Trump's strategy: total pressure on the Cuba-Venezuela axis
The Delta Force captured Maduro on January 3 at the Fort Tiuna in Caracas, during the so-called Operation Absolute Resolve.
During the operation, 32 Cuban military personnel from the FAR and the MININT, who were part of his personal escort, lost their lives.
On March 9, Washington formally recognized the new Venezuelan government, released frozen assets of PDVSA, and signed a mining agreement worth 165 million dollars.
The Trump administration has imposed more than 240 sanctions against Cuba since January 2025 and signed Executive Order 14380 on January 29, declaring Cuba a "unique and extraordinary threat."
The Coast Guard intercepted at least seven tankers heading to Cuba, including the Ocean Mariner carrying 84,579 barrels of Colombian fuel oil.
Rubio's message: without changes in Cuba, there will be no relief
The Secretary of State Marco Rubio demands a complete change of the system as a condition for lifting sanctions: His system of government must change.
A source within the Trump administration described the energy strategy with a straightforward phrase: "Energy is the tourniquet to kill the regime." Trump publicly declared: "Cuba is next".
Blackouts and the energy crisis
Cuba has accumulated three months without receiving diesel, fuel oil, or gasoline from any external suppliers, following the drop in Venezuelan supply of between 27,000 and 35,000 barrels per day.
On March 16, the seventh total collapse of the National Electric System was recorded in 18 months, with a blackout lasting 29 hours and 29 minutes.
A few days later, on March 22, another total collapse occurred.
As of March 25, the generation deficit reached 1,885 megawatts during peak hours, with only 1,145 MW available against a demand of 3,000 MW. Satellite images from NASA and Bloomberg documented a 50% drop in nighttime lighting in the country.
The economy and political prisoners
The Economist Intelligence Unit projects a GDP contraction of 7.2% for 2026, which would raise the cumulative decline since 2019 to 23%. Mexico suspended oil shipments on January 9 due to U.S. sanctions; Cuba carries a debt of over 1.5 billion dollars with that country.
Prisoners Defenders reported a historic high of 1,214 political prisoners in February 2026, including 131 women and 31 minors. Cuba announced in March the release of 51 inmates following mediation by the Vatican, but only 13 were political prisoners.
The 80% of Cubans believe the current crisis is worse than the Special Period of the 1990s.
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