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The arrival in Cuba of the Russian oil tanker Anatoly Kolodkin, loaded with approximately 730,000 barrels of crude oil and authorized by the United States amid the island's energy crisis, has reignited the debate on the political direction of Havana and Washington's strategy.
In that context, the Cuban-American political analyst Andy Gómez stated that he does not foresee a near resolution to the country's situation nor a coherent policy from the administration of Donald Trump.
During an interview with journalist Javier Díaz from Univision, Gómez was straightforward in assessing the current situation:
"I tell you that I don't see an end to this situation yet. I don't see any sense in it. I don't see a strategic policy."
The analyst openly questioned Washington's official narrative, even regarding statements made by Secretary of State Marco Rubio:
"No, no, wait, wait, I’m telling you that maybe we know a lot more about what's happening than what they are doing."
In his view, there is a disconnect within the U.S. government regarding how to address the Cuban issue:
"I believe there is a significant difference between what the White House wants to do, and what Secretary Rubio, who knows Latin America and Cuba very well, understands should be done."
No real changes in power in Cuba
One of the key points in Gómez's analysis is that, despite the contradictory signals—such as allowing the entry of Russian oil while maintaining economic pressure—there are no real signs of political change on the island.
When asked whether the situation could prolong due to the lack of definitions, he responded: "I believe they are talking about change, but as we have seen from the Cuban side, they clarified that there will be no change of regime."
The analyst quoted recent statements from Cuban Vice Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío to strengthen his argument, in which the vice minister asserted that as long as Raúl Castro is alive, there will be no regime change in Cuba.
A shipment of oil that raises more questions than answers
On the other hand, the arrival of the Russian ship —owned by a company sanctioned by the United States, the European Union, and the United Kingdom— has raised questions about the consistency of U.S. policy toward Cuba.
Trump himself justified the decision on humanitarian grounds, amidst blackouts and fuel shortages on the island, which has gone months without receiving regular supplies.
However, for Gómez, the message being conveyed is contradictory.
"The question we need to ask ourselves is, first they said there was a blockade on oil to Cuba, that no one could send oil to Cuba, then they said Venezuela was allowed to send oil to the private sector, and now a Russian ship is permitted to enter Cuba, so I believe the answer is clear," he questioned. The analyst did not delve deeper into that "answer," but implied his criticism of what he considers an erratic policy.
A crisis that remains unresolved
The shipment of Russian crude, although substantial, barely covers a few days of energy demand in Cuba, highlighting the structural severity of the crisis facing the island.
Meanwhile, Cuba remains trapped between sanctions, scarcity, and geopolitical tensions, in a scenario where —according to Gómez— there are no clear signs of change or a defined strategy from Washington.
Her conclusion summarizes the skepticism that persists among part of the Cuban exile community:
"I don't see an end to it yet."
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