The History and Religious Studies professor at Yale University, the Cuban Carlos Eire, analyzed the situation in Cuba, the prospects for transition, and the role of the exile community during a lengthy live interview this Wednesday. When asked by CiberCuba whether the Island is cursed due to its affinity for witchcraft, he expressed his opposition to this theory, asserting that "the curse of Cuba is its own history of dependence on other countries."
In this regard, he warned about that recurring historical pattern: "There is always a catch. Someone comes to rescue the military junta, to make investments in Cuba, and nothing changes." He pointed out that each time the regime has been on the brink of collapse, someone comes to the rescue: Europeans, Canadians, Venezuelans, Chinese, or Russians. Regarding Russia, he stated that it is too entangled in the war in Ukraine to confront the United States, but China could get involved and turn Cuba into "another Vietnam": an advancing economy but with repression.
Eire, one of the most internationally recognized Cuban-American intellectuals and winner of the National Book Award in the United States in 2003, spoke for over an hour with journalist Tania Costa about the current political moment, hope for change, and his own experience as one of the 14,000 children who were part of the Peter Pan Operation.
Regarding the power structure in Havana, the professor was emphatic: "Díaz-Canel represents the worst of the worst. A person without charisma. He has reverse charisma; instead of positive charisma, he has negative charisma." In this regard, he added that both Díaz-Canel and Prime Minister Manuel Marrero are decorative figures who operate behind a veil, while real power remains in the hands of the Castro dynasty, with Raúl as the shadowy force.
In Eire's view, the current situation in Cuba is worse than during the Special Period: prolonged blackouts, food shortages, cities where people cook with firewood, and "the only thing that functions well is repression." According to him, "the regression in Cuba" is so significant that one can speak of a clear reversal.
He also described the releases of prisoners announced by the regime as cosmetic gestures, referring to the fact that of the first 51 announced, only 27 were political prisoners and none of notable figures such as Luis Manuel Otero Alcántara, Michael Osorbo, or Saily Navarro were included. And of the 2,010 presented as a step forward, on Holy Thursday, there are currently no updates indicating that it benefits dissidents.
Regarding the conditions for a genuine transformation, the academic was adamant: "The change must be complete." He argued that without a total change, not like that of Venezuela, Cuban exiles will not return to the island en masse. He estimated that of the more than three million Cubans abroad, those who might return would primarily be the younger ones, and only if the change is real and profound.
Regarding national reconciliation, Eire drew a clear line: "We must reconcile, but there has to be justice," and he acknowledged that "that is the most complicated part. And it is never easy." Following these statements, he emphasized that the first step is to recognize the radically different lives that Cubans in exile and those on the Island have led.
The professor regarded it as a "near-miraculous" element that Marco Rubio, of Cuban descent, is holding the position of Secretary of State at this historic moment, despite the unpredictability of President Donald Trump. He also rejected the idea of Cuba becoming the 51st state of the United States, advocating instead for independence with temporary external support during the transition.
Regarding the role of the Catholic Church, he sharply criticized Cardinal Jaime Ortega, who, according to Eire, "embraced the regime and constantly defended it," even stating at Harvard that those who criticized the revolution should have no voice in Cuba's future. In contrast, he emphasized the importance of Father Alberto Reyes.
Eire, who is 75 years old and has spent 64 in exile, concluded the interview with a note of measured hope: "On the horizon that Cuba has today, here, April 8 of this year, one can see a glimmer of light. And it is possible that this glimmer of light will turn into a sun. A new day, not an eternal night."
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