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Amid endless blackouts and an energy crisis that has pushed daily life on the island to its limits, a new international report raises an inevitable question: Could Cuba emerge from the electrical collapse by investing in renewable energy?
A study published by the Transition Security Project (TSP), a group of experts linked to the British think tank Common Wealth, concludes that the country could cover up to 93.4% of its electricity demand with an investment of approximately 8 billion dollars. According to the analysis, this amount would be sufficient to significantly reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels, the main cause of the blackouts currently affecting millions of Cubans.
The report, prepared by researcher Kevin Cashman and cited by The Guardian, arrives at a critical moment. Since the beginning of the year, the island has faced a drastic reduction in oil supply due to measures taken by Washington that increased costs or limited exports to Cuba. The result has been a sustained emergency scenario.
During March, the national electric grid collapsed three times. In vast areas of the country, power outages extended up to 25 hours a day, affecting more than 60% of the territory. Hospitals operating at their limit, transport paralyzed, industries halted, and homes plunged into darkness: for nearly 10 million Cubans, the crisis transformed from a statistic into a daily experience of weariness.
In this context, the report outlines several energy transformation scenarios. The most ambitious— a network entirely based on renewable sources— would require an investment of $19.2 billion. However, experts believe that with less than half of that amount, around $8 billion, it would already be possible to virtually eliminate dependence on imported oil.
Even a more modest plan of $5 billion would reduce that dependence to just one-fifth of current electricity generation, which would represent a significant change in the stability of the system.
The proposed model primarily relies on solar energy, which could generate nearly three-quarters of the country's electricity. Wind energy would account for about one-fifth, while the remainder would come from sources like hydroelectric and bioenergy.
Cuba has already taken some steps in that direction. The authorities have announced plans to install over 1,000 megawatts of solar energy with Chinese support, and even have reported record generation days in this sector. However, these advancements are still far from compensating for the structural fragility of the electrical system.
Beyond the supply aspect, the economic impact would also be significant. According to the report, the cost of electricity could nearly be halved: from the current 14.3 cents per kilowatt-hour to about 6.5 cents with an investment of $8 billion, which would ease the pressure on an already struggling economy.
Still, the biggest challenge remains financing. The authors of the study suggest that this type of investment should be understood as part of international climate financing, a way to support vulnerable countries in their energy transition.
Meanwhile, in Cuba, the reality is different: families spending entire nights without electricity, food that goes to waste, hospitals relying on generators, and a growing sense of exhaustion.
The report opens a window of possibility, but it also highlights the distance between what could be and what millions of Cubans are experiencing in darkness today.
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