President Donald Trump responded ambiguously this Saturday when a journalist asked him if reports are true that the Pentagon is preparing for military action in Cuba. "It depends on what your definition of military action is", Trump said in a clip shared by the official White House account Rapid Response 47.
The question arose following the publication by Axios about conversations that reportedly took place in Havana between representatives of the Trump Administration and the Cuban regime, in which El Cangrejo, the grandson of Raúl Castro, was present. This also came after reports published on April 15 by USA Today, which, citing anonymous sources, revealed that the Pentagon had received a new directive from the White House to accelerate planning for potential military operations in Cuba.
In his response, Trump added an ironic reference to former President Bill Clinton—famous for his evasive "it depends on what you mean by 'is'" during the Lewinsky scandal. The journalist who asked him compared the potential Cuban scenario to what happened in Venezuela or Iran: "Would it be similar to Venezuela or Iran?" she asked Trump, to which the president replied: "It really depends on what your definition of military action is, as Bill Clinton would say."
The statement comes just hours after Trump promised at the Turning Point USA rally held on Friday in Phoenix, Arizona, before about 5,000 attendees, that "very soon this great fortress will also bring a day that has been 70 years in the making: it is called a new dawn for Cuba."
In that same speech, Trump directly appealed to the Cuban-American community: "We are going to help them with Cuba. We have many great Cuban-Americans," and concluded with the warning: "And now, look at what is happening."
The ambiguous response this Saturday fits a pattern of statements from the president. On April 15, he said, "we may stop in Cuba after we finish with this," referring to the conflict with Iran.
On March 27, he stated in Miami Beach: "Cuba is next, but pretend that he didn't say it."
On March 16, he declared from the White House: "I believe I will have the honor of taking Cuba." And on January 3, after the capture of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, he asserted from Air Force One that "Cuba is ready to fall."
The Pentagon avoided confirming specific plans on April 16, but stated that the armed forces are ready to act if Trump orders it. This stance contrasts with the testimony of General Francis Donovan, head of Southern Command, who declared in March before Congress that active plans for taking the island were not being made.
In parallel with military pressure, the Trump Administration maintains a diplomatic channel: according to Axios, officials from the Department of State met this Saturday in Havana with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, grandson of Raúl Castro, offering to install Starlink in Cuba, economic relief, and the possible lifting of the embargo in exchange for free elections, the release of political prisoners, and compensation for property confiscated since 1959.
The regime of Díaz-Canel responded with rhetoric of resistance. On April 16, invoking the anniversary of the Bay of Pigs, he declared: "We are ready to fight". On April 7, he had warned in Newsweek about a "guerrilla war with the participation of the entire people" and predicted "immense losses" for any invading force.
However, the Cuban military exercises on April 11 in Villa Clara —which showcased oxen and mule-drawn anti-aircraft artillery transporting supplies— generated widespread mockery on social media, highlighting the real deterioration of the dictatorship's armed forces.
Experts cited by USA Today indicated that a military intervention in Cuba would be relatively straightforward given this deterioration, but warned that the real challenge would be the subsequent reconstruction.
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