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The Cuban ambassador to the UN, Ernesto Soberón Guzmán, declared this Thursday to the Associated Press that Cuba is prepared to respond militarily if the United States launches an aggression, while flatly rejecting any ultimatum from Washington to release political prisoners as a condition for ongoing diplomatic negotiations.
"We are observing what is happening around the world, in our region, in the Middle East, so we are not naive," the diplomat stated, adding that if there were a military aggression, "we are ready to respond."
The statements are made in the context of the first high-level direct conversations between Cuba and the United States in a decade, which began on April 10 when a U.S. delegation arrived secretly in Havana.
Washington was represented at the level of Under Secretary of State and Havana at the level of Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs.
According to reports from USA Today and Axios, the United States imposed a two-week deadline —which expires this Friday— for Cuba to release high-profile political prisoners, including artist Luis Manuel Otero Alcántara and rapper Maykel Osorbo, both imprisoned since the protests on July 11, 2021.
The State Department was direct in its warning: "The Cuban regime must stop playing games while direct talks are being held. They have a small window to make a deal."
Soberón Guzmán rejected that demand with equal firmness: "We have our legal system, just as you have yours here in the U.S. So we must respect the internal matters of both."
The diplomat insisted that issues related to detainees are not on the negotiation table and that the regime's position is that these matters fall solely within its internal jurisdiction.
Despite the belligerent tone, Soberón Guzmán left the door open for dialogue: "Our first option —what we truly want— is a successful dialogue with the U.S. government."
Energy crisis and military preparedness
The backdrop of this tension is an unprecedented energy crisis on the island. The capture of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces in January 2026 eliminated between 80 and 90% of Venezuelan crude oil imports, and Trump's executive order on January 29 imposed secondary tariffs on countries that export oil to Cuba, which led Mexico to suspend shipments from Pemex.
Cuba needs between 90,000 and 110,000 barrels daily but produces only about 40,000 internally, which has led to blackouts lasting over 40 hours in some communities.
In that context of economic suffocation, the regime maintains a dual strategy: diplomatic dialogue while intensifying military preparations.
The National Defense Council, chaired by Raúl Castro, approved plans for the "transition to a State of War" on January 18, and Havana declared 2026 as the "Year of Preparation for Defense," with military exercises every Saturday under the doctrine of "people's war."
Díaz-Canel himself described the meeting on April 10 as "respectful and professional" and in a "very preliminary phase", although he has also warned that a military intervention would encounter guerrilla resistance and result in "immense losses" for the aggressor.
Compensations and negotiations at a critical juncture
Among the topics that Soberón Guzmán did acknowledge as part of the discussions are the compensations to Cuban Americans for properties confiscated since 1959, although he conditioned any agreement on a reciprocal easing of the embargo: "It's not just this claim, but also our claim because the embargo has an economic impact. This is a highway with two directions."
Cuba released 52 prisoners in March 2026 and another 2,010 in early April as part of the dialogues, but refuses to accept formal conditions regarding high-profile detainees, leaving the negotiations at a point of maximum tension just as the U.S. ultimatum expires.
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