Does the National Electric System of Cuba have a solution?

Policymakers have the obligation to explain things as they are, even when they are difficult and unpleasant. Evading with lies and fabrications, communicating with little transparency, or assuming that the recipient is unaware and that it is not worth telling the truth is a practice that often ends very badly.

The question is: why don't the communist leaders tell the truth about the National Electric System? This is what Cubans ended up asking after watching the program "Mesa Redonda," where the Minister of Energy and Mines, Vicente de la O Levy, tried to evade the issue regarding the recovery of the National Electric System.

The lies and fabrications can be counted by the dozens in such a short period of time, and each one worse than the last. In the country of continuous blackouts, stating that by the end of 2025, Cuba had achieved "significant advances in the recovery of the National Electric System, despite the intensification of the U.S. blockade" is a tasteless joke and a dreadful way to start, according to the minister. The audience couldn't believe what they were hearing.

Next, stating that the regime has implemented a comprehensive strategy consisting of four lines, namely, "recover more than 1,000 MW in distributed generation, increase national gas production, repair key thermoelectric units, and advance in renewable energy by increasing penetration from 3% to 10% in one year," is not only a fallacy, but the results have hardly been noticeable. The reality is that the Island is sinking into a continuous electrical chaos, preventing Cubans from leading a normal life.

Because in reality, as the minister said in a burst of sincerity, “the impacts persist”, he again lost credibility when he claimed that “2026 will focus on consolidating what has been achieved and introducing energy accumulation systems, as well as extending manufactured gas service.” The minister knows well that this is neither possible nor will be possible as long as Cuba does not regain its ability to access international financial markets, and that simple move is contingent on paying contracted and unassumed debts, and doing so immediately. There are no more deferrals or debt renegotiations. The moment of truth has arrived, no matter how much the minister insists otherwise. Otherwise, no one will lend anything to Cuba.

Yes, indeed. It acknowledged two important things. That it wasn't until 2024, really quite late, that attention began to be paid to the electrical issues, perhaps because they weren't on the agenda, as the oil from Venezuela continued to arrive on the Island under very favorable conditions. But when this country entered a crisis and supplies plummeted, the regime's leaders realized that the situation was going to be very complex.

Alarming data

The data on the table is alarming: by the end of 2024, distributed generation had barely reached around 350 MW out of nearly 3,000 installed, due to a lack of parts and financing. Hold onto this argument because it will be crucial to the unfolding events. As national oil, of lower quality, heavier, and with sulfur concentration, began to be pumped in 2025 to attempt to recover generation up to 1,000 MW, the old, obsolete facilities of the National Electric System said "enough" and the issues with fuel took a backseat to the paralysis and problems with machinery, parts, and facilities. The plants with malfunctions required their immediate disconnection from the national system and blackouts began to become widespread.

As a result, while the titanic and commendable efforts of the technicians at the power plants were managing to recover some thermal units, such as units 3 and 4 of the "Carlos Manuel de Céspedes" in Cienfuegos and unit 5 of Renté in Santiago de Cuba, others were being taken offline from the national electricity system. In fact, some, like unit 4 of the "Céspedes," experienced delays due to planning errors and quality issues in maintenance. This created a chaotic and uncontrolled situation on the part of the authorities, who, recognizing that the problems would take a long time to resolve, ultimately turned to renewable energy sources and national gas when there was no other option left.

To this end, new wells were drilled to increase the production of associated gas, and with significant effort, a generation of only 370 MW was achieved, using its own fuel, which is completely insufficient. Regarding renewable sources, and although nothing is mentioned about this, they greatly benefited from the donations of Chinese solar panels, which have allowed the penetration to increase from 3%—one of the lowest in Latin America and the Caribbean—to 10%, an increase that seems excessive and will need to be reviewed.

Better to blame the embargo

And, of course, the “main responsible party for this situation” has been the oil embargo from Trump's presidential order last January, although it was reported that the last ship that entered Cuba with oil did so on December 8. Then the Russian ship arrived with 100,000 tons. Once again, the minister resorted to the narrative that Cuba's access to the international oil market has been challenged by U.S. tariff measures and military presence in the Caribbean. The eternal recreation of the embargo/blockade fuels the propaganda of the communist regime and fails to acknowledge that the difficulties in accessing international oil markets stem from Cuba's poor record as a debtor nation. It's a very simple rule that the communist regime does not adhere to: if debts are not paid, there is no credit, and that is the harsh reality that goes unmentioned. It’s better to lie and blame the embargo/blockade.

The fact is that the end of this story is well known: without strategic oil reserves on the Island, with the power plants paralyzed due to the terrible state of the infrastructure and a low percentage (and especially in application) of renewable energy, the eternal dependence on imported fuel (first from the USSR, then from Venezuela) has led to a dramatic outcome for the population, the economy, and society: months relying only on the old thermal power plants, if we subtract 2,000 MW of unavailability minus 1,400, it leaves 600 MW of impact; without fuel, there are no possibilities for improvement.

The minister stated that, given the described scenario, certain measures were taken, but their impact has been minimal. For instance, the priority given to agriculture and food production has proven ineffective, as the issues persist, now exacerbated by price increases that prevent wage earners and pensioners from accessing products sold in stores for foreign currency, due to the exchange rate with the peso.

A similar situation occurred with the priority given to the so-called "foreign currency generators," which has proven ineffective as exchange rate tensions due to the shortage of foreign currency continue to drive rates upwards. As a result, since these priorities yielded no results, the easy decision was to extend power outages beyond what was planned, but only for the population and daily life. The limited energy was also attempted to be channeled, again without success, to factories to prevent a production standstill. The GDP data will reflect this scenario.

In this presentation of chaos, the minister explained that he has a "government program" with 62 detailed actions, month by month, to be evaluated every week, because the goal is “not just to grow, but to consolidate and sustain what has been recovered” from the 1,114 MW of available distributed generation.

It was announced as a major innovation the incorporation of “energy storage systems”, triumphantly indicating that the resources are already in Cuba and in the installation phase. It was reported that the manufactured gas program for cooking in Havana, which had paused due to a lack of gas, is back in operation with the aim of adding 25,000 new customers, to reduce electrical demand, prioritizing “keeping the thermoelectric plants running with Cuban crude oil, because without that fuel there would be a total blackout.”

The minister expressed Cuba's preference for crude oil purchases rather than petroleum derivatives “because it is more economically viable: gasoline, fuel, diesel, and LPG are obtained from it. Importing each product separately increases shipping costs and external refining.” On the other hand, “not all refined fuel is for electricity; part of the diesel and fuel (about 6,000 tons) is allocated to hospitals, generators, and transportation. Liquefied gas will be sent to hospitals with gas boilers and food production centers.”

The reality is much worse

The reality is much worse. Without strategic reserves, the ships that can arrive at the Island, with varying amounts of barrels, run out quickly because the needs are many and very complex. Specifically, though it may sound strange, the minister acknowledged that “this situation causes additional problems of logistics and distribution, because if the crude is unloaded in one place and needs to be taken to the other end, it means that when it arrives at one side, the other is already out.” To address this, it was decided to “raise minimum inventories to start everything at once.”

After going through these penalties, the minister acknowledged that “the improvement was noticeable since April 17: not the desired one, but significant, with 800 tons distributed daily out of the 1,600 needed,” which is exactly half. This decision was justified by De la O Levy stating that “if 1,600 were used, there would be fewer blackouts, but they would last half as long,” or acknowledged in another way: “The Russian ship reaches until the end of April”.

The minister reported on the disparities in the electrical reality among the different provinces, noting that "theoretically, the formula is equitable, but if one province has more vital services, it has fewer circuits that can be turned off, and its population is more affected." If there is no fuel, it will experience more blackouts. At one point, he acknowledged that everything is planned at midnight, but "in the meantime, Mariel or another thermal plant might go offline, the sun changes, or seaweed arrives that blocks the intakes of Energás, and adjustments have to be made. Nobody plans for the seaweed or the breakdown of a thermal plant." In other words, the foundations of the socialist economy based on central planning have been overwhelmed by the Cuban National Electric System.

Precisely regarding this last point, the minister acknowledged that in order to plan and act successfully, the system "lacks batteries," and he justified this by stating that "solar energy fluctuates, which generates variations in frequency, voltage, and consumption. Batteries stabilize. There are four major sites in Cuba, totaling 200 MW, for when there are 3,000 MW of renewables."

And he continued his defense of renewables, stating that the first 50 MW installation will allow them to surpass 900 MW. The goal of the energy transition is to "achieve sovereignty for all stakeholders. Not just parks: to recover the 7,827 windmills (with 5,673 currently available), solar pumping for livestock and hydropower, and the 409 biogas plants (only 124 are operational)."

In the same vein, he defended the purchase of 15,000 solar units (Ecoflow type), modified to charge solely with solar energy. These units were “distributed to teachers, doctors, heroes of labor, and children with electro-dependencies (171 initially, followed by 263 more). Additionally, 5,000 solar systems were allocated to polyclinics, maternity homes, nursing homes, funeral homes, banks, offices of the Electric Union, broadcasters, and Etecsa.” With this argument, the minister confirmed that “the transition is progressing on multiple fronts.”

What advancements are we talking about?

First, to achieve a 15% penetration of renewable energy by adding what the private sector, state enterprises, and organizations contribute. In total, 1,700 MW from generation and water pumping savings using renewable sources. The private sector has also responded by financing lighting on avenues in Havana. Entire companies have resolved 100% of their employees' energy needs with their own budgets.

Secondly, implement a first phase in this process until 2030 to achieve 24% renewable energy, and in a second phase reach 40% by 2035, which would eliminate the need for fuel imports, saving more than one million tons annually.

Third, to achieve total sovereignty by 2050 with 100% renewable energy, thanks to the potential in forest biomass, hydraulic, wind, and even tidal energy.

Soaring is good, but in the meantime, the oil ships do not arrive, technical problems in the old power plants are increasing, investments in technologies struggle to find the necessary funding, power outages become endless, passenger and freight transport comes to a halt, and with that, productive activity. The energy chaos worsens more and more, while a future that does not arrive is awaited.