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The Cuban comedian Ulises Toirac published this on Facebook, providing a nuanced analysis of the independent survey circulating about Cuba, which, in his own words, is "causing headaches" for the government: he acknowledges its civic value but warns that its results cannot be considered statistically reliable.
Toirac revealed that he had spoken with one of the organizers of the initiative before publishing his opinion, and he was direct: "It is very difficult for a survey called (and implemented) in this way to provide reliable numbers for many reasons."
The comedian explained that a scientifically valid survey requires a representative demographic sample of all population subgroups, something he considers impossible to achieve under the current conditions in Cuba.
"This survey cannot achieve that for the reasons we know: the government does not want people to participate, IP blocking, and...", he wrote, leaving the sentence unfinished.
The Cuban regime blocked access to the platform from the island, which forced participants to use virtual private networks to respond.
Despite the blockade, by April 26, the survey exceeded 22,400 responses, with 58% coming from within Cuba.
The survey was launched on April 23 by a coalition of over 20 independent Cuban media outlets —including CiberCuba, elTOQUE, Rialta, Alas Tensas, and 14ymedio— and will remain open until May 1. It consists of 32 anonymous questions with anti-fraud measures and is available at encuestascuba.net.
The partial results show a strong rejection of the system: 75.1% of participants support a transition to a liberal democracy with a market economy, 92% express significant dissatisfaction with the current system, and Miguel Díaz-Canel experiences absolute rejection with an average rating of 1.11 out of five, with 93.7% giving him the lowest score.
Despite his methodological reservations, Toirac did not dismiss the initiative. "However, it is an excellent way to put civism, understood as the exercise of opinion, into practice," he wrote, adding that the survey allows for "highlighting extreme and intermediate points. The majority of opinion angles."
She even shared the link in the comments of her post, recommending to copy it into the browser without clicking on it directly and to use a VPN.
The post sparked widespread debate. While some followers shared the comedian's reservations, others defended the value of the initiative.
"More than a survey, it's a thermometer," summarized a follower.
Another, Ines Casal, was more emphatic: "Cubans need to express ourselves and confront our opinions, criteria, ideas; something that the dictatorship does not allow."
The historian Alina Bárbara López Hernández defended the legitimacy of the survey on the same Sunday, arguing that the government blockade itself demonstrates the fracture of the regime's information monopoly.
The pro-government media, on the other hand, labeled it as "scientifically invalid" even before the results were known.
In the comments of Toirac's post, a follower reported that a social worker had asked them to sign "for freedom," when in reality it was the signature sheet for the regime's official campaign "Sign for the Homeland", illustrating the political tension surrounding both initiatives at this time.
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