The economist Elías Amor warns that 2026 will be the year of an "absolutely devastating" economic downturn for Cuba and that the signals indicate the regime has no option but to relinquish power, according to statements gathered in a recent analysis on the projections of ECLAC for Cuba in 2026.
In response to a question from a CiberCuba viewer asking how much longer the dictatorship will remain in power, the economist's answer was straightforward. "At this moment, the regime must be experiencing tremendous concern about what lies ahead. First, for what they have endured; they survived the year 25 in a filibustering manner, but what is coming now in year 26 is an absolutely devastating collapse," Amor stated.
The economist emphasized that the problem is not only the scale of the collapse but also the regime's inability to address it: "The bad thing about this is that they have neither the tools nor the knowledge to confront this economic crisis."
That sense of impotence, according to Amor, paves the way for a non-violent transition scenario. "It is very likely that they will take a step aside. I believe that the best solution for the transition in Cuba is not violence; it is simply taking a stance on the issue of admitting: we do not know how to get out of this hole," he pointed out.
The economist's reasoning is that the regime itself might prefer to withdraw rather than face an uncontrollable social explosion. "We need the people not to take to the streets in massive social protests, and to avoid that, to prevent a crisis situation that no one knows how to stop, we take a step back and let others come in to straighten out the economy," he explained.
His conclusion was emphatic: "The signals conveyed by the economy are fundamentally for them to relinquish power."
This analysis is based on data from CEPAL, which ranks Cuba in last place among 27 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean in macroeconomic management, with a projected contraction of 6.5% of GDP for 2026, even greater than that of Haiti (-4%).
Added to the 3.8% decline recorded in 2025 and the accumulated contraction of 11% between 2020 and 2024, the Cuban economy would have lost nearly 26% of its GDP since the onset of the pandemic, a magnitude comparable to the Special Period but stretched over time.
The Economist Intelligence Unit goes even further and forecasts a decline of 7.2% in Cuba's GDP in 2026, which would represent a cumulative contraction of 23% since 2019.
In the same program, another listener, Manuel, from New Jersey, asked if GAESA —the military conglomerate that controls between 30% and 40% of the Cuban economy— is comparable to Putin's oligarchs. Amor declined to answer: "I cannot respond to that question because I do not know GAESA's accounts, nor have I ever seen the financial statements or enrollment data that GAESA has."
The economist did reject the comparison with the conglomerates that emerged from the Soviet collapse, arguing that they do not have the same kind of equivalence, and defended his position as a matter of professional rigor.
This potential transition scenario occurs as Cuba has been experiencing street protests since March in several provinces, with slogans such as "Down with the revolution!" and "This is over!" sparked by power outages of more than twenty hours a day and the collapse of critical electrical infrastructure.
It's not the first time that Amor has issued a warning of this magnitude. The economist had previously predicted the fall of the regime in earlier analyses, and his projections now align with those of international organizations that describe Díaz-Canel clinging to power while Cuba sinks.
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