The businessman and historical figure of the Cuban exile Santiago Álvarez Fernández-Magriñá stated this Thursday that the Cuban opposition, both within the island and in exile, is preparing a joint public statement with two fundamental demands regarding any transition process in Cuba: the right to participate in that transition and the complete exclusion of direct representatives of the Castro family.
Álvarez, 84 years old and a veteran of Brigade 2506, made these statements in the context of recent accusations by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who accused Cuba of harboring Chinese and Russian intelligence bases on its territory, a sign that Álvarez himself interprets as a possible stagnation in negotiations between Washington and Havana.
The exile openly acknowledged that the Trump administration is negotiating with members of the regime's family circle: "They are currently speaking with the close relatives of the Castro family, namely: Raúl Castro, 'the crab,' and the other one who is the son, who controls the armed forces, the repressive forces."
The nicknamed "The Crab" is Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, grandson of Raúl Castro and lieutenant colonel of MININT, identified as a key interlocutor with Rubio's team since February 2026.
Álvarez did not question Washington's right to conduct its foreign policy: "American policy is not directed by us Cubans, it is directed by the Americans. They have the right to craft their policy."
However, he drew a clear red line: "Where we do want to have a say and a vote is in the transition itself."
The businessman pointed out that these interlocutors of the regime are owners of GAESA, the Cuban military conglomerate that, according to leaked estimates, manages "between 15 and 18 billion dollars in cash, while in Cuba they don’t even have money to pay for oil."
A BBC report on GAESA published this month estimated the total assets of the conglomerate at nearly 17.9 billion dollars.
Álvarez's position accepts that officials of the Cuban state may have some role in a transition, but it absolutely excludes the Castro family.
This position contrasts with the negotiating strategy of the Trump administration, which does engage in dialogue with representatives of the clan, creating tension with sectors of the historical exile. Analysts describe the model that the regime seeks as a “Cubastroika”: economic reforms without real political change.
Parallely, the new Castro generation is gaining ground in the power structures: Oscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga, the great-nephew of Fidel and Raúl, has held the position of Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Trade since 2025, positioning himself as a possible successor to Díaz-Canel in a controlled transition.
Álvarez, who financially supports around 150 families of Cuban political prisoners each month, was emphatic in summarizing the opposition's position: “In the transition itself, we believe that the Cuban opposition, both in Cuba and in exile, over 67 years and across several generations, has earned the right to participate in a transition in Cuba. And we have earned the right to demand that at no point in any transition should direct representatives of the Castro family be involved.”
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