The Cuban journalist and political analyst Camilo Loret de Mola asserts that Raúl Castro remains the real power behind the regime in Cuba, despite his public silence and infrequent appearances, and that all strategic decisions of the leadership go through his hands.
In an interview with CiberCuba, Loret de Mola was unequivocal: "In any case, let no one doubt that everything goes through the hands of Raúl Castro; every decision goes to Raúl Castro," including what role each visible actor of the regime should play.
For the former lawyer of Duque Hernández, the message from Secretary of State Marco Rubio is clear: the regime "must take swift action if it doesn't want to reach the end of the road," because there is no room for the "elementary delay" that Havana has historically practiced.
The analyst explained that the Cuban institutional system, while presented as a collective, "responds to the directives of that little old man who marches and is suddenly brought out." Its limited visibility would not be a sign of loss of power, but rather a deliberate protective measure.
"I don't believe he doesn't want to talk; I think they are protecting him, that they have him hidden away, because of the brutal experience that Nicolás Maduro went through and the possibility that he could be taken away, which is why they are keeping him under wraps, as they don't want him to be seen," Loret de Mola stated.
According to Loret de Mola, Castro assigns roles with the pragmatism that has always characterized him. "The main thing is to achieve transcendence, to accommodate the place, and to sacrifice whoever needs to be sacrificed." In that scheme, the current sacrifice would be Miguel Díaz-Canel, he said.
"In this case, the one being sacrificed is Miguel Díaz-Canel, who maintains that belligerent discourse," the analyst pointed out, also warning that this tough rhetoric is not primarily aimed at Washington, but at the Cuban people. "It's like saying: we are still the same hardliners, the same bad guys."
The opposition leader José Daniel Ferrer had reached a similar conclusion: Díaz-Canel is a "sacrificial pawn" in the system, and Raúl Castro "has not stepped back."
Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has increased pressure on Havana in a deliberate sequence. First, he demanded the release of political prisoners, then raised the issue of property confiscations since 1959, and last Monday accused Cuba of hosting Chinese and Russian intelligence bases, turning the dispute into a national security issue for the United States.
Loret de Mola interprets this strategy as a progressive encirclement. "It has introduced social issues, historical economic problems, and international security concerns," designed to prevent the regime from dragging out negotiations—a tactic in which, according to the analyst, the Cubans are experts.
China rejected Rubio's accusations on Wednesday, calling them "fabricated pretexts", while the Cuban regime continues its rhetoric of resistance.
The real control of Castro is also exercised through GAESA, the military-business conglomerate which would manage approximately 18 billion dollars in strategic sectors without civil transparency.
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