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The Cuban meteorologist Alejandro Adonis Herrera published a clarification on Thursday on his Facebook page regarding viral posts that announced an "intense heatwave" in Cuba over the coming days.
Adonis confirmed that a strong anticyclone does indeed exist at mid-tropospheric levels, with its center expected to be located, on average, over the northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next five days, very near Cuba and the Yucatán Peninsula.
However, he clarified that this system is not the same as described in the viral publications, which incorrectly placed it in the eastern Caribbean, and that it is also not a surface anticyclone, meaning in the pressure field at sea level.
According to the specialist, the anticyclone will indeed cause a widespread decrease in rainfall in the Yucatán Peninsula and Cuba, and to a lesser extent in the eastern Caribbean, which will promote relatively high maximum temperatures.
But Adonis was emphatic in distinguishing between two concepts that, although they seem similar, are not: "A heatwave implies that a certain temperature threshold is exceeded and that this situation persists for a certain period of time. Furthermore, it cannot be a matter of one point, or two, or three; it has to be something generalized."
The meteorologist explained his own technical criteria: "In my opinion, for Cuba specifically, a heat wave could be considered when at least 20% of the weather stations in the country record maximum temperature values of 37 ºC or higher. And that must be maintained for at least five days."
And he went straight to dismissing the scenario: "I don't think that's going to be the case this time."
Adonis also acknowledged the intensity of the heat that is approaching: "It's undeniable that temperatures over 34 ºC, combined with Cuba's humidity, create a horrible heat, especially in those places where on certain days it reaches 37 or 38, which can certainly happen. But again, heat is not the same as a heat wave."
The specialist took the opportunity to criticize the historical stance of the Cuban Meteorological Service, which claims that there are no heat waves in the country.
He recalled that a meteorologist was explaining on television that Cuba did not experience them because it is a long and narrow archipelago where the coastal breeze prevented extreme temperatures like 40 ºC. Adonis deemed that explanation "not convincing" and added: "In recent years, we have reached and surpassed that threshold. He forgot about global warming."
He went further by suggesting that behind that official stance there could be more than just a technical error: "Or perhaps the policy of 'nothing happens in Cuba, even the weather is wonderful' is what he really meant, knowing full well that there are indeed heat waves in Cuba."
In 2023, the Meteorology Institute (INSMET) dismissed the existence of a heat wave in Cuba, as many residents on the Island speculated in light of the intense heat in recent days.
A study published in May 2025 identified for the first time an increase in daily mortality associated with heat waves in Cuba.
The official forecast from INSMET for this Friday indicates maximum temperatures between 32 and 35 degrees Celsius, higher in some inland areas, with partially cloudy skies, isolated showers in the interior and south of the country, and light variable winds with a sea breeze regime in the afternoon.
This scenario is set within a broader context: INSMET projected that May 2026 will be a very warm month across the country, with temperatures above historical averages in all three regions, and that the upcoming summer will bring more heat than usual, with nights offering little thermal relief.
In April 2024, Cuba broke the 40 ºC barrier for the first time, recording 40.1 ºC in Jucarito, Granma, and in May 2025 several stations reported 37 ºC in various provinces, illustrating the upward trend that Adonis himself points out as evidence that heatwaves in Cuba are a reality that the regime preferred to ignore for years.
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