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The American media outlet Axios published an analysis on Monday documenting how the escalating rhetoric of the Donald Trump administration against Cuba is fueling fears of a possible military action against the island, which would represent the most serious confrontation between Washington and Havana since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962.
Tensions have increased in parallel with a rise in surveillance and reconnaissance flights by the United States near Cuban territory. According to a flight data analysis released this week by CNN, since February, Washington has conducted at least 25 military operations using P-8A Poseidon aircraft, RC-135V Rivet Joint, and MQ-4C Triton drones, coming within less than 64 kilometers of the Cuban coast.
Axios quoted on Monday a White House official who described Cuba as "a declining nation that has been disastrously governed for many years" and stated that the regime has suffered a heavy blow after losing the support of Venezuela.
The official added a phrase that has caused concern both inside and outside the island: "As the president stated, Cuba is a declining country. It will fall in a short time, and we will be there to help them."
The rhetoric of high-ranking U.S. officials has intensified in recent weeks. Last Tuesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the Cuban economic system "doesn't work and cannot be fixed," and he launched an attack on the ruling elite by asserting: "The only thing worse than a communist is an incompetent one."
Trump has also fueled speculation about a possible military operation. On Friday, he hinted that a U.S. aircraft carrier returning from Iran could position itself off the coast of Cuba and stated that it would only take approaching "about 100 meters from the shore" for Havana to ultimately surrender.
Another sensitive revelation adds to that scenario. Journalist Katherine Doyle reported on Monday, citing U.S. officials and former officials, that the Pentagon has begun updating plans for a potential military action against Cuba in the event that Trump gives the order.
The new sanctions announced on Thursday against GAESA and other Cuban entities further strengthened the atmosphere of maximum pressure. Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla described the measures as a "collective punishment of a genocidal nature."
Despite the rising tension, Axios highlights that there are no definitive signs of an imminent attack. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva revealed last Thursday that Trump privately mentioned to him during a meeting at the White House that he has no intention of invading Cuba.
Sebastián Arcos, interim director of the Cuban Studies Institute at Florida International University, explained to Axios that the possibility of an intervention began to be discussed following the declaration of Cuba as an imminent threat to the national security of the United States in January, although the conflict with Iran temporarily shifted military attention toward the Middle East.
"Everything has taken a back seat. Now that we see the war with Iran in a sort of limbo, I can sense renewed attention on Cuba, not just regarding the surveillance flights, but also in the statements from the president, Marco Rubio, and the sanctions that have just been announced," Arcos stated.
The analyst considers a ground troop invasion unlikely, but believes that a "remote military action" similar to the one recently executed against Iran is possible, which could "shock the regime" and weaken the ruling elite.
Arcos also pointed out that the upcoming May 20, Cuba's Independence Day, is a date filled with symbolism and tension. He stated that both in Miami and on the island, there is currently "a sense of anticipation and anxiety."
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