The American media outlet Axios published an analysis on Monday that documents how the rhetorical escalation of the Donald Trump administration against Cuba is fueling fears of possible military action against the island, which would represent the most serious confrontation between Washington and Havana since the Missile Crisis of 1962.
Tensions have risen in tandem with an increase in surveillance and reconnaissance flights by the United States near Cuban territory. According to flight data analysis released this week by CNN, Washington has conducted at least 25 military operations since February using P-8A Poseidon aircraft, RC-135V Rivet Joint, and MQ-4C Triton drones, coming within less than 64 kilometers of the Cuban coast.
Axios quoted a White House official this Monday who described Cuba as "a nation in decline that has been disastrously governed for many years" and asserted that the regime has suffered a severe blow after losing the support of Venezuela.
The official added a phrase that has sparked concern both on the island and beyond: "As the president stated, Cuba is a country in decline. It will fall soon, and we will be there to help them."
The rhetoric of high-ranking U.S. officials has become more hardened in recent weeks. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated last Tuesday that the Cuban economic system "does not work and is beyond repair," and he criticized the ruling elite by asserting: “The only thing worse than a communist is an incompetent one”.
Trump has also fueled speculation about a possible military operation. On Friday, he hinted that a returning U.S. aircraft carrier from Iran could position itself off the coast of Cuba and stated that merely coming "within about 100 meters of the shore" would be enough for Havana to surrender.
Another significant revelation has emerged in this scenario. Journalist Katherine Doyle reported on Monday, citing U.S. officials and former officials, that the Pentagon has begun updating plans for potential military action against Cuba in the event that Trump gives the order.
The new sanctions announced on Thursday against GAESA and other Cuban entities have further intensified the atmosphere of maximum pressure. Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla described the measures as a "collective punishment of a genocidal nature."
Despite the increasing tension, Axios emphasizes that there are no definitive signs of an imminent attack. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva revealed last Thursday that Trump privately mentioned to him during a meeting at the White House that he has no intention of invading Cuba.
Sebastián Arcos, interim director of the Cuban Studies Institute at Florida International University, explained to Axios that the possibility of intervention began to be discussed following Cuba's designation as an imminent threat to U.S. national security in January, although the conflict with Iran temporarily shifted military attention to the Middle East.
"Everything has taken a back seat. Now that we see the war with Iran is in a sort of limbo, I can sense renewed attention focused on Cuba, not only in terms of surveillance flights but also in the statements from the president, from Marco Rubio, and in the sanctions that have just been announced," Arcos stated.
The analyst finds a ground troop invasion unlikely, but believes that a "remote military action" similar to the one recently executed against Iran is possible, which could "shock the regime" and weaken the ruling elite.
Arcos even pointed out that the upcoming May 20th, Cuba's Independence Day, is a date filled with symbolism and tension. He stated that both in Miami and on the island, there is currently "a feeling of expectation and anxiety."
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