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President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio aim to strategically provoke the end of communist control in Cuba while avoiding a total collapse of the country, according to a report released this Thursday by the New York Times, based on conversations with officials and individuals close to the U.S. administration.
The main objective of Trump and Rubio is unmistakable: they want to be able to claim that the United States has ended the communist control of Cuba, but without pushing the country into complete chaos, the New York newspaper points out in an extensive analysis of the increasing pressure from Washington against Havana.
The publication describes an increasingly aggressive strategy from the White House, which would include economic sanctions, energy restrictions, diplomatic pressure, intelligence operations and legal threats against historical figures of the Cuban regime.
In the center of this offensive is the possible federal charges against Raúl Castro for the downing in 1996 of the Brothers to the Rescue aircraft, an event that resulted in the death of four individuals and permanently hardened U.S. policy towards Cuba.
The NYT reports that federal prosecutors in Miami are currently working on preparing the case, and the Trump administration perceives the charges as part of a maximum pressure campaign.
The strategy, according to the newspaper, also aims to send a message to both the Cuban ruling elite and the exile community in Miami, which has historically supported a tougher policy against the regime.
The report also recalls the recent visit to Havana by the CIA Director, John Ratcliffe, who reportedly communicated direct demands to the Cuban government, including the closure of alleged Russian and Chinese espionage stations on the island and progress towards greater economic openness.
According to analysts consulted by the newspaper, the White House is trying to combine extreme pressure with the idea of a controlled transition that avoids a humanitarian crisis or a chaotic power vacuum in Cuba.
Frank Mora, former U.S. ambassador to the OAS, stated to the NYT that Trump “is frustrated” because he has not yet achieved the expected results in Cuba and that is why “they are tightening the screws” to force concessions from the regime.
The article also notes that the U.S. administration views the operation carried out in Venezuela against Nicolás Maduro in January 2026 as a success, an experience that some officials believe could be partially replicated in Cuba.
Nevertheless, experts warn that the Cuban political and military structure is different from the Venezuelan one and that Havana has historically withstood intense external pressures without making significant concessions.
Despite this, the report makes it clear that Washington believes the situation in Cuba has entered a decisive stage and that the underlying political goal is to accelerate a transformation of the system without triggering a scenario of ungovernability on the island.
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