The U.S. intelligence community has begun studying how Cuba would respond to a potential military action ordered by President Donald Trump, as revealed by CBS News.
Pentagon and Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) analysts began this work in early May while tracking the sanctioned Russian tanker Universal, which has been drifting in circles in the Atlantic over 1,600 kilometers from Cuba for weeks.
Two U.S. officials who requested anonymity confirmed to CBS News that work is already underway on developing military options for the president, although they clarified that this does not imply a presidential decision.
This type of intelligence forecasting aims to show not only the immediate consequences of a U.S. action but also the chain of reactions that could follow.
When journalists asked him on Wednesday if there would be an escalation following the formal charges against former president Raúl Castro, Trump responded: "No, there will not be an escalation. I don't think it's necessary."
The analysis takes place against a backdrop of increasing tension between Washington and Havana, partly fueled by reports regarding the Cuban regime's drone arsenal.
CBS News independently confirmed that Cuba has acquired attack drones, without specifying who provided them or how they were obtained.
The media Axios revealed on Sunday that Havana may have acquired over 300 military drones and that Cuban officials discussed plans to use them against the Guantanamo naval base should hostilities arise with the U.S.
The Cuban leader Miguel Díaz-Canel denied that Cuba poses a military threat to the U.S., but warned that a U.S. attack would lead to a "massacre."
In parallel to the military pressure, the Trump administration launched an intense diplomatic and sanctions offensive.
Last week, the CIA Director, John Ratcliffe, traveled to Cuba and met with intelligence officials and Raúl Guillermo "Raulito" Rodríguez Castro, the grandson of the former president.
Ratcliffe informed Cuban officials that the Trump administration was offering "a genuine opportunity for collaboration" and the possibility of stabilizing the Cuban economy, contingent on Havana severing its ties with Russia, China, and Iran, and warned that the offer would not remain open indefinitely.
A U.S. official stated to CBS News that Ratcliffe's meeting would test whether the parts of the regime that recognize the need for a new direction can persuade the more intransigent sectors, who believe they can survive Trump just as they have endured 67 years of U.S. pressure.
On the sanctions front, the U.S. sanctioned GAESA earlier this month and on Monday announced a new series of measures against Cuban military and intelligence agencies and officials.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio also reiterated an offer of 100 million dollars in humanitarian aid—food, medical supplies, and solar lamps—to be distributed through religious organizations, which he claimed had been blocked by the Cuban government.
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