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The U.S. intelligence community has begun to assess how Cuba would respond to a potential military action ordered by President Donald Trump, as revealed by CBS News.
Pentagon and Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) analysts began this work in early May while tracking the sanctioned Russian tanker Universal, which has been drifting in circles in the Atlantic over 1,600 kilometers from Cuba for weeks.
Two U.S. officials speaking on condition of anonymity confirmed to CBS News that work is underway on developing military options for the president, although they clarified that this does not imply a presidential decision.
This kind of intelligence forecasting aims to showcase not only the immediate consequences of a U.S. action but also the chain of reactions that could stem from it.
When journalists asked him on Wednesday if there would be an escalation following the formal charges against former president Raúl Castro, Trump replied, "No, there will be no escalation. I don't think it's necessary."
The analysis takes place against a backdrop of rising tension between Washington and Havana, partly driven by reports on the Cuban regime's drone arsenal.
CBS News independently confirmed that Cuba has acquired attack drones, without specifying who provided them or how they were obtained.
The media Axios revealed on Sunday that Havana has reportedly acquired more than 300 military drones and that Cuban officials have discussed plans to use them against the Guantanamo naval base in the event of hostilities with the U.S.
The Cuban leader Miguel Díaz-Canel denied that Cuba poses a military threat to the U.S., but warned that a U.S. attack would result in a "massacre."
In parallel to the military pressure, the Trump administration launched an intense diplomatic and sanctions offensive.
Last week, the CIA director, John Ratcliffe, traveled to Cuba and met with intelligence officials and Raúl Guillermo "Raulito" Rodríguez Castro, grandson of the former president.
Ratcliffe communicated to Cuban officials that the Trump administration was offering "a genuine opportunity for collaboration" and the possibility of stabilizing the Cuban economy, conditioned on Havana severing its ties with Russia, China, and Iran, and warned that the offer would not remain open indefinitely.
A U.S. official stated to CBS News that Ratcliffe's meeting would test whether the sectors of the regime that recognize the need for a new direction can convince the more intransigent sectors, who believe they can survive Trump just as they have endured 67 years of U.S. pressure.
On the sanctions front, the U.S. sanctioned GAESA earlier this month and on Monday announced a new series of measures against Cuban military and intelligence agencies and officials.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio also reiterated a pledge of $100 million in humanitarian aid—food, medical supplies, and solar lamps—to be distributed through religious organizations, which he claimed had been blocked by the Cuban government.
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