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The Cuban economist and demographer Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos stated in an interview published by 14ymedio that Cuba needs an international humanitarian intervention—comparable to those that occurred in Syria, Kosovo, or Haiti—for the economic changes the country requires to be possible, and he warned that the system is heading towards an inevitable point of implosion.
Albizu-Campos, who holds a degree in Industrial Economics from the University of Havana and has studied demographics in Costa Rica and Paris, is regarded as one of the foremost experts in the field. His most recent estimate places the real population of Cuba at 8,025,624 inhabitants, significantly lower than the 9,748,532 recorded by official statistics.
"I have always said, since 2021, when COVID hit, that Cuba needs an international humanitarian intervention. A humanitarian intervention like what happened in Syria, Kosovo, Haiti... In fact, economic changes will not be possible without that," declared the expert.
One of the most alarming statistics is the population exodus: Albizu-Campos estimates that between 2020 and 2024, 24% of the population left Cuba, in the absence of war. "It is a true displacement crisis," he noted. 80% of those emigrants are aged between 15 and 59, which exacerbates the collapse of the labor market and the pension system.
The birth crisis adds another dimension to the demographic disaster. In 2025, the number of births in Cuba totaled only 68,000, a figure lower than that estimated for 1899, when the island was just emerging from the war of independence. "Did you hear that right? 1899," the demographer emphasized. The fertility rate dropped to 1.29 children per woman, a historic low that Albizu-Campos attributes to the "Malthusianism of poverty": families stop having children because they lack the resources to raise them.
This combination of factors threatens to collapse the pension system. By 2030, the entire generation of the so-called Cuban "baby boom" —born between 1957 and 1963— will reach retirement age, and since 2010 the economically active population has stopped being replaced. "And no one mentions it! I've been struggling with this issue for years," the expert lamented.
Regarding the new Immigration Law published in May 2026, Albizu-Campos was emphatic. He warned that the concept of "effective residence"—which recognizes as a resident anyone who stays 180 days in Cuba—will serve to mask the actual figures of emigration. Furthermore, he deemed the implicit acceptance of dual nationality unconstitutional: "How can a decree be issued that accepts dual nationality when it is denied in the Constitution? That is completely unconstitutional." The organization CubaLex also pointed out that the new immigration laws consolidate the regime's control over the population.
The expert also dismissed a massive return of emigrants, even if Cuba changes. He pointed out that there are currently 135,000 Cubans with work permits in Guyana and has identified at least 20 active migratory routes with a Cuban presence. The exodus of Cubans does not stop due to a lack of willingness to leave, but rather due to a lack of opportunities.
Regarding the future, Albizu-Campos expressed cautious optimism. He stated that change is "inevitable" and that the ruling class itself must acknowledge this to survive politically. He estimated that any real stabilization process would require at least four years, involving the restoration of infrastructure and transformation of the economic model. "If what needs to change hasn’t changed, we are going to face very hard times, because the State, which is already socioeconomically broken, would have no option but to leave people to their fate," he concluded.
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