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The Cuban economist and demographer Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos stated in an interview published by 14ymedio that Cuba needs an international humanitarian intervention—similar to those that occurred in Syria, Kosovo, or Haiti—for the economic changes that the country requires to be possible, and warned that the system is heading towards an inevitable point of implosion.
Albizu-Campos, a graduate in Industrial Economics from the University of Havana and with studies in demography in Costa Rica and Paris, is considered one of the leading experts in the field. His most recent estimate places the actual population of Cuba at 8,025,624 inhabitants, well below the 9,748,532 recorded by official statistics.
"I have always said, since 2021, when COVID hit, that Cuba needs an international humanitarian intervention. A humanitarian intervention like what happened in Syria, in Kosovo, in Haiti... In fact, economic changes will not be possible without that," the expert stated.
One of the most alarming pieces of data is the population exodus: Albizu-Campos estimates that between 2020 and 2024, 24% of the population left Cuba, in the absence of war. "It's a real displacement crisis," he stated. 80% of those emigrants are between the ages of 15 and 59, which exacerbates the collapse of the labor market and the pension system.
The birth crisis adds another dimension to the demographic disaster. In 2025, the number of births in Cuba was just 68,000, a figure lower than what was estimated for 1899, when the island was just emerging from the war of independence. “Did you hear that correctly? 1899,” emphasized the demographer. The fertility rate fell to 1.29 children per woman, a historical low that Albizu-Campos attributes to the “Malthusianism of poverty”: families stop having children because they lack the resources to raise them.
This combination of factors threatens to collapse the pension system. By 2030, the entire generation of the so-called Cuban "baby boom" — born between 1957 and 1963 — will reach retirement age, and since 2010 the economically active population has ceased to be replaced. "And no one mentions it! I have been struggling with this issue for years," lamented the expert.
Regarding the new Immigration Law published in May 2026, Albizu-Campos was emphatic. He warned that the concept of "effective residency" —which recognizes as a resident anyone who stays in Cuba for 180 days— will serve to mask the true figures of emigration. Furthermore, he deemed the implicit acceptance of multiple nationalities unconstitutional: "How can a decree be issued that accepts multiple nationalities when this is denied in the Constitution? This is completely unconstitutional." The organization CubaLex has also pointed out that the new immigration laws consolidate the regime's control over the population.
The expert also ruled out a massive return of emigrants, even if Cuba changes. He pointed out that there are currently 135,000 Cubans with work permits in Guyana and that he has identified at least 20 active migration routes with a Cuban presence. The exodus of Cubans is not halted by a lack of willingness to leave, but rather by a lack of opportunities.
Regarding the future, Albizu-Campos expressed a cautiously optimistic outlook. He stated that change is "inevitable" and that the ruling class must acknowledge it to survive politically. He estimated that any real stabilization process would require at least four years, involving the restoration of infrastructure and a transformation of the economic model. "If what needs to change hasn't changed, we are going to have a very difficult time, because the state, which is already socioeconomically broken, would have no other option but to abandon people to their fate," he concluded.
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