Academician Jorge Duany, Emeritus Professor of Anthropology at Florida International University and former director for 12 years of the Institute of Cuban Research warns that the Cuban regime's entrenchment in the face of the crisis affecting the island follows a historical pattern of communist leadership: to wait, not to reform, and to avoid doing anything that threatens their own interests.
Duany formulated this thesis in an interview with Tania Costa for CiberCuba, motivated by the photographs of the meeting on May 29 between the U.S. Southern Command and the Cuban Ministry of the Armed Forces at the perimeter of the Guantanamo Naval Base, an unusual meeting that both parties described as positive.
The academic faced the question that summarizes the contradiction of the moment: “Why are they barricading themselves if they have no light and sooner or later they won’t have light either? Where do they want to go? Because barricading oneself is dangerous at this moment,” said the journalist.
Duany referred to the serious energy situation in the country. Cuba is experiencing its worst crisis in decades, with blackouts exceeding 20 hours a day and a generation deficit of over 2,000 MW, while between December 2025 and April 2026, only one of the eight monthly fuel ships that the country needs arrived.
Despite this reality, the regime has not undertaken structural reforms.
As an example of this contradictory logic, Duany pointed out that the government allowed the Cuban diaspora to invest in the island, while simultaneously the Ministry of the Interior issued an order authorizing the confiscation of bank funds under accusations of money laundering or drug trafficking.
"We already know that in Cuba, that's just the way it is," said the academic, while the journalist compared the measure to the so-called "maceta plan," through which the regime eradicated private entrepreneurs who had accumulated capital.
For Duany, this behavior is not new. "I believe this is a reflection of the high Cuban leadership since the beginning of the Revolution, from the time of Fidel, then Raúl, and now Díaz-Canel. Let’s say it's their way of responding to external challenges, particularly to the perceived threats from the United States."
The most recent precedent he cited was the rapprochement between Obama and Raúl Castro. "There was a sort of brief opening for a couple of years, but no substantial changes occurred."
His conclusion is that "the natural or normal tendency of the high leadership in Cuba is to wait and wait, and to truly do nothing that could threaten their own interests."
About the publication of images from the meeting at the Naval Base by MINFAR on its social media, Duany was cautious about the audience but clear in his interpretation: "I'm not sure who this is directed at. It seems to me that this is once again a propaganda operation. I think it is a kind of portrait of the current situation."
The academic also pointed out the paradox of meeting in Guantánamo. Cuba has never recognized the presence of the U.S. naval base in that territory as legitimate, yet it legitimizes that presence by meeting there with Southern Command.
"The most concerning scenario is not the military one, but the social one. 'Right now, people are protesting peacefully, but at any moment we could see something else,' the journalist pointed out."
Filed under: