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Miguel Díaz-Canel stated that the Trump administration is working with three scenarios for Cuba: to provoke a social uprising through economic suffocation, to impose coercive dialogue to take control of the economy and force a political change, or to carry out a direct military aggression.
The Cuban leader stated this in an extensive interview with the Spanish medium elDiario.es in Havana.
The statements come at a time of heightened tension between Washington and Havana.
The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) directly sanctioned him, his wife Lis Cuesta, Alejandro Castro Espín, and institutions such as the Ministry of Revolutionary Armed Forces, the Committees for the Defense of the Revolution, and the Cuban Institute of Friendship with the Peoples.
Díaz-Canel described the first scenario he attributes to Washington as follows: "Through economic suffocation, provoke a social explosion, and that social explosion would then provide a pretext for humanitarian intervention in the country."
The second, he said, would be "to maintain a dialogue with Cuba that is coercive and maximum pressure to seize the Cuban economy, which would then provide the opportunity to provoke a change in the political system." The third would be "the use of military aggression."
Regarding a possible invasion, he warned: "Invading Cuba would cost Cuban lives, it would cost hundreds of thousands of Cuban lives, but it would also result in significant human losses for the invader in all types of scenarios."
The ruler emphasized that these scenarios have not been constructed by Cuba, but are present in U.S. rhetoric. "Therefore, we have the right to defend ourselves, to prepare to defend ourselves, so that there are no surprises and no defeats," he warned.
Finally, he emphasized that he will continue to seek dialogue to resolve the "contradictions" that exist in the relations between Cuba and the United States and to avoid confrontation. "But for that, there also needs to be a willingness on the part of the United States government," he said.
What Díaz-Canel omitted is as revealing as what he said. He did not mention the cacerolazos that shook Havana that week in El Vedado, Centro Habana, Playa, Regla, and other neighborhoods, the largest protests since July 11, 2021.
He also did not acknowledge that the regime has blocked the 100 million dollars in humanitarian aid offered by Washington to distribute food and medicine through the Catholic Church and independent organizations.
The Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed before Congress that the regime "is creating obstacles" to channeling that aid, directly contradicting the official narrative from Havana.
Rubio also acknowledged that there are "technocrats" in Cuba whom Washington could collaborate with for a transition, although he admitted not having identified a trustworthy individual to lead it.
This week, Trump promised from the Oval Office to "take care of Cuba" after resolving the crisis with Iran, and stated about the regime: "They had oil coming in. They had money coming in from Venezuela. But now they have nothing."
On May 28, Axios revealed that the Trump administration is preparing for a possible collapse of the regime in the summer of 2026 and that Southern Command conducted multi-agency simulation exercises for scenarios of disturbances on the Island.
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