The Cuban journalist and writer Alfonso Quiñones argues that the only real solution for Cuba is a coup d'état led by honest military personnel within the system itself, and he draws a direct parallel with the assassination of the Dominican dictator Rafael Leónidas Trujillo in 1961 to support his thesis.
Quiñones, who has been residing in Santo Domingo for 25 years, made these statements in a interview with Tania Costa for CiberCuba, in the context of remarks made by Díaz-Canel, in which the leader acknowledged that Washington is managing three scenarios for Cuba: social explosion, economic control, and military intervention.
"It would be a rebellion within the military, like what happened with Trujillo here in Santo Domingo, where it was those closest to him who killed Trujillo, and that was the end of the dog and the rage," Quiñones stated.
The writer sees that scenario as viable for Cuba and points directly to the regime's security structures as the place where that change could take root.
"I believe there must be within the army, within state security, within the Ministry of the Interior, people with a certain sense of dignity, courage, bravery, and love for the people, because they know they are killing the people. They are killing them," he declared.
Quiñones dismisses any genuine transformation from the current political leadership and indicates that the official discourse is a smokescreen.
For the writer, the true engine of immobility is not the Communist Party as an institution, but rather a leadership that has turned power into its main business.
"They just don't want to lose power. It's not just the Communist Party anymore. No. It's them. The ruling elite. Raúl Castro with his group, his structure. Díaz-Canel with his. Marrero, who is always left out, but he's also a big guy, corrupt just like all the others," he said.
This argument is not new in the Cuban debate: in August 2025, a former Cuban general had already publicly called on officers and soldiers to exercise their "right of insubordination" and proposed a civic-military coalition for a democratic transition.
Meanwhile, according to information gathered in May 2026, the Trump administration was testing military plans in anticipation of a potential collapse of the Cuban regime, and Southern Command conducted simulation exercises in response to possible unrest on the island.
Regarding the fate of the dome if it decided to relinquish power, Quiñones was ironic: "The best thing they could do with the millions of dollars they have stolen: go to North Korea."
However, he clarified that China—another ideologically aligned option—is in practice a capitalist economy, something the Cuban regime could have adopted "if they had been a little bit smart," although he concluded: "They are military, they are stupid."
The analysis by Quiñones takes place in a Cuba that, according to CEPAL, is projected to experience a GDP contraction of -6.5% in 2026, the largest in Latin America, even surpassing Haiti (-1.4%), which are the only two countries in the region facing economic decline that year.
"All that corrupt leadership is the same, and they are not going to allow anything to happen," Quiñones concluded, emphasizing that only an internal break within the armed forces or security could create a real way out for the Cuban people.
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